Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Battista Minola 1616]

What does our Spanish posters' gut feeling say today, on election day?

Also, at which hour do polling stations close?

Polling stations will close at 20:00 local time, but results are expected to take longer to come in than usual. Still Spain tends to count ballots very fast so by midnight we should have upwards of 99% of the vote counted if all things go to plan.

My gut feeling (though I've had this the entire campaign) is that PSC will underperform and Junts will overperform but that's not really based on anything and I have not paid too much attention.

Looking forward to an eventful evening, then. The mail votes are counted together with the regular votes, I suppose?

And I hope your gut feeling is wrong (actually given what I know about your politics you should hope it is wrong as well - are you a pessimist now?).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Hey.

So the result was an almost three-way tie between PSC, ERC and Junts (in this order).

Basically 1/4 of the seats to PSC, 1/4 to ERC, 1/4 to Junts, and 1/4 to everyone else combined (mostly unionists).

I have no idea what will happen next. If a continuation of the current alliance between ERC and Junts while difficult is still the most likely scenario, since it would remain a minority government, how would the investiture work? CUP abstention again as a matter of course?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Precinct map from eldiario.es:

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-calle-calle-consulta-gano-manzana_1_7220231.html

Very interesting!

What are the reasons that in many precincts with strong PSC results (and strong 2017 C's results) the ERC is relatively strong (often in second place) whereas Junts is basically non-existent? Who are these voters? Are they like most of their neighbors when it comes to language, class, family history, etc.?

The explanation may well be more complicated than this, but wouldn't you expect a place that leans left unionist-speaking to also lean left separatist-speaking?

[Battista Minola 1616]

https://i.ibb.co/qs2m7j8/cops.png


Remember the Police housing precinct we were discussing two months ago? Well, PSC topped the poll, but only because VOX and PP split the conservative vote.

That has to be the most hilarious result of this election. Although of course the Right bloc still beat the Left bloc easily.
Interesting how hard C's was destroyed here, much harder than the average.