Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Battista Minola 1616]

Map Time!

Italian Constitutional Referendum 2020 - Provinces

[Battista Minola 1616]

Italian Regional Elections September 2020 - Provinces

[margins of victory]

[Battista Minola 1616]

Fantastic maps, thank you!

Interesting to see No's strength in triveneto (aside from the Austrians) but not in the rest of the North, even in very right-wing areas. Not surprising that Yes' strongest areas were in the South, but some of the patterns within the South are interesting (weaker around the Gulf of Taranto and the Strait of Messina, stronger in more inland areas).

Thanks!

Some other interesting things I noticed are:
Yes getting more in MI than in RM (whereas my gut feeling would associate Milan to muh "central" liberal big city more than Rome);
the almost zero correlation between left vs right leaning and Yes vs No strength in the Red regions and especially Emilia-Romagna (given that they normally have the most clear-cut and possibly the most polarized political geography);
the anti-Southernization of Sardinia (Yes getting only 61% in CA? wtf).

I also didn't expect such a sharp fault line where the South begins (which incidentally is also where M5S begins - and Lega fades), and Liguria is funny in that it almost seems like a displaced piece of Triveneto.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Italian Regional Elections September 2020 - Provinces

[margins of victory]

That's a *lot* of narrow right wing wins (or am I actually misreading it?)

It depends on what you mean.
There were seven provinces carried by the centre-right candidate with a single-digit margin:
La Spezia in Liguria by Toti.
Massa e Carrara, Pistoia, Arezzo, Grosseto in Tuscany by Ceccardi.
Pesaro e Urbino in Marche by Acquaroli.
Brindisi in Apulia by Fitto.

Coincidentally there were also seven provinces carried by the centre-left candidate with a single-digit margin.

[Battista Minola 1616]

So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

[Battista Minola 1616]

So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Many would genuinely describe that as light blue-grey, tbf

So what is the dark grey bit in the NW corner?

Valle d'Aosta, which I left "N/A" because 1. the president of the region is not directly elected 2. there are strong regionalist parties which make for a different political system than the rest of Italy.

[Battista Minola 1616]

So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Many would genuinely describe that as light blue-grey, tbf

So what is the dark grey bit in the NW corner?

Valle d'Aosta, which I left "N/A" because 1. the president of the region is not directly elected 2. there are strong regionalist parties which make for a different political system than the rest of Italy.

Plus it's plain old PR, without coalitions. Lega topped the polls there for what it's worth, but with just 23%.

Yes exactly. It's just incommensurable with the other regions. I wonder what kind of coalition will the new Aosta Valley regional government have.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Mayoral run-offs held yesterday and today.

Results in main towns ("capoluoghi di provincia", provincial capitals)

CR=centre-right; CL=centre-left

Arezzo: CR (incumbent) 54.5% CL 46.5% HOLD
Lecco: CL 50.1% CR 49.9% HOLD by 31 votes. (10,978 vs 10,947)
Reggio Calabria: CL (incumbent) 58.4% CR 41.6%. HOLD
Matera: 5 Stars 67.3% CR 32.4% GAIN FROM INDY
Crotone: Local 64% CR 36%. GAIN
Chieti: CL 55.8% CR 44.2% GAIN
Andria: CL 58.9% M5S 41.1%. GAIN
Aosta: CL 53.3% Rinascimento 46.7%. HOLD
Bolzano: CL 57.2% CR 42.8% (SVP backed CL in the run off)

Lecco lol N U T nailbiter.
Is a recount allowed?

Chieti gain for the centre-left is really the last thing I was expecting.

SVP backing the centre-left in Bolzano is good, but why? It's a break from the last two years where they have shifted to backing the centre-right.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Mayoral run-offs held yesterday and today.

Results in main towns ("capoluoghi di provincia", provincial capitals)

CR=centre-right; CL=centre-left

Arezzo: CR (incumbent) 54.5% CL 46.5% HOLD
Lecco: CL 50.1% CR 49.9% HOLD by 31 votes. (10,978 vs 10,947)
Reggio Calabria: CL (incumbent) 58.4% CR 41.6%. HOLD
Matera: 5 Stars 67.3% CR 32.4% GAIN FROM INDY
Crotone: Local 64% CR 36%. GAIN
Chieti: CL 55.8% CR 44.2% GAIN
Andria: CL 58.9% M5S 41.1%. GAIN
Aosta: CL 53.3% Rinascimento 46.7%. HOLD
Bolzano: CL 57.2% CR 42.8% (SVP backed CL in the run off)

Lecco lol N U T nailbiter.
Is a recount allowed?

Chieti gain for the centre-left is really the last thing I was expecting.

SVP backing the centre-left in Bolzano is good, but why? It's a break from the last two years where they have shifted to backing the centre-right.

Disputed ballots in Lecco are 15.
Local electoral commission will have now to officially declare the results. They will go through all the "verbali" from polling stations, re-doing the additions.

I remember some places with recounts in the past. Candidates need to ask for them to TAR or Consiglio di stato. I saw some places where the recount was granted one year after the election.

There is a Senate constituency in Emilia-Romagna where the 2018 result was overturned by a recount in SUMMER 2019.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Jole Santelli, President of Calabria, died last night. She was only 51 years old. She was suffering from a cancer.
RIP
https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/10/15/news/calabria_muore_la_presidente_jole_santelli-270629214



It is the first time since regional presidents are directly elected that one of them dies in office... so there are no precedents for this, but apparently the regional law states that new elections must be held within a couple months.
So Antonio you may change the thread title.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Changed the title to the general mood of the day. Will update it when we have a confirmed date for the Calabria election (it's quite possible it will get delayed given how bad the situation is getting).

As for Santelli, I'm sorry to see her go this way. Her bio makes her sound like your standard Berlusconi hack, but that obviously doesn't mean she deserved this, and on a personal level she was apparently quite friendly. Rest in peace.

In general news, yep, the second wave is on. I'll have updated charts of how bad things are getting at some point next week, but in terms of case growth we've gone all the way back to the  darkest hours of March-April (thankfully, the growth in hospitalizations is far slower, but they're still starting to severely stress the healthcare systems of some regions).

Legendary Badass Vincenzo De Luca, whose region is the second worst hit (the worst is once again Lombardy), has taken action and decided to close down schools and universities. Obviously he's getting criticized by the feckless clowns who run the national government, but I'm sure he'll answer in kind during his weekly briefing tomorrow. He continues to prove he's one of the few politicians in this country who has what it takes to save his constinuents' lives.

The Virgin Attilio Fontana vs. The Chad Vincenzo De Luca

[Battista Minola 1616]

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Yesterday Nathan wrote this - I am not sure he had Ceccardi in mind but I actually think it fits her well.

"political Catholicism is when you're right-wing; the more right-wing you are, the more Catholic it is " nonsense-mongering

> Was accused of not registering civil unions
> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

> https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=405839.0

Ayy lmao

CONDOLENCES! AGAIN!

[Battista Minola 1616]

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Yesterday Nathan wrote this - I am not sure he had Ceccardi in mind but I actually think it fits her well.

"political Catholicism is when you're right-wing; the more right-wing you are, the more Catholic it is " nonsense-mongering

> Was accused of not registering civil unions
> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

> https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=405839.0

Ayy lmao

CONDOLENCES! AGAIN!

CHECKMATE CATTOLEGHISTI

The Virgin Susanna Ceccardi and the Chad Dunstan Thompson

Not to mention that her former deputy mayor has lost the municipal election and Cascina is governed by the centre-left again now.
CONGRATS CATTOLEGHISTI! YOU LOST THRICE!

[Battista Minola 1616]

Since I am a numbers man and not a news man, I won't talk about the (potential or actual) new restrictions or the galloping coronavirus cases, but instead I finally tabulated together the list votes across all the regions which voted on September, and here is the result.

LIST VOTES

PD: 19.8%
Lega: 14%
FdI: 10.6%
Zaia's list: 10.2% hot f[inks]
M5S: 7.5%
FI: 5.4%
IV: 3.5%
De Luca's list: 3.5%
Green Europe: 2%
Toti's list: 1.6%
Fitto's list: 1.6%
Extreme left: 1.5%
Emiliano's list: 1.2%
[I didn't tabulate separately smaller ones]
Unclassifiable and/or tiny centre-left lists*: a whopping 14%
Unclassifiable and/or tiny centre-right lists: 2.1%
Everything else**: 1.6%

SUMMING UP BY IDEOLOGICAL AREA

Centre-right: 45.5%
Basic centre-left: 40.5%
M5S: 7.5%
IV: 3.5%
Everything else: 3.1%

*I put pretty much all the fluffy lists with fluffy names and no correspondence to known parties that spawned in Campania and Apulia there.
**Including all those regional Aosta Valley parties, whose numbers are extremely tiny on a national scale.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Well since this would get a lot of "who dat?" in reply if I posted it on Off-Topic Board, and since there is not a separate thread for Italian General Discussion, I will post this here:

RIP Absolute Legend Gigi Proietti

https://www.repubblica.it/spettacoli/people/2020/11/02/news/morto_gigi_proietti-272698267

This is really saddening, I think he was my favourite living Italian actor. Fittingly for someone born on the Day of the Dead, he died on his (80th) birthday...



Today is also the 45th anniversary of Pier Paolo Pasolini's death. Pasolini strikes me as someone who must be a favourite of threadmaster Antonio.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I'm honestly not too familiar with Gigi Proietti (I'm sure I've seen him in movies but I didn't really register him), but RIP FF.

Some random examples of his sketches:
https://youtu.be/ZeJV11iVp2Q
https://youtu.be/_ylQEOeXCoE

He was also the director of the Globe Theatre in Rome (a direct replica of the one in London), situated in Villa Borghese.

[Battista Minola 1616]

In electoral news, things that have happened in the last month or so:

1. Apparently the regional election in Calabria will be held between February and April.

2. Former Minister of the Economy and Finance Pier Carlo Padoan resigned from his Chamber seat to enter the board of directors of Unicredit (ugggh) and since he was elected from a single-member constituency, there will be a by-election... some day.

2a. Padoan represented Tuscany - 12 (Siena), which probably means we are in for a new round of collective leftist freakout about the Red Regions, although the Bonaccini/Giani experience may have quelled the doom.

2b. I've read articles reporting about rumours of... parachuting Zingaretti to the seat. I find the idea very stupid for a number of reasons, but we'll see.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I'm guessing this is coming from Zingaretti's enemies? They're usually the ones who try hard to get him to accept a new job.

It's possible, I don't know. It may also be that someone had a stupid idea thinking it was great, which seems a very PD thing to do.

Meanwhile, there is also talk of a cabinet reshuffle of some sort, which I'm certain would go badly.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Today I found a lot of cool infographics about the regional elections from Bidimedia:

Liguria -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-liguria-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
As expected, the medieval centre of Genoa is RAD, whereas Foce/Albaro/San Martino (the near-east) are very right-bourgeois. All in the space of like 7 km².
It is funny because La Spezia is not even remotely as polarized; excluding the anomalous left-wing strongholds, mon amours Biassa and Pitelli, there wasn't a single precinct where either candidate broke 60% (that link only has the precincts map for Genoa, but I know the precinct results of La Spezia as well because they're on our municipality website).
There are probably more things to say about Liguria but I think we fleshed it out with palandio pretty well some months ago.

Veneto -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-veneto-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
This one is extremely boring and not very informative for obvious reasons, however I won a bet I made with a friend of mine - he thought Mestre and Marghera were more left-wing than the historic centre of Venice, I thought the opposite, and Zaia's result was indeed much worse (although still an easy win) in the historic centre. It may be a fluke, but I doubt it.

Campania -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-campania-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
This one more than boring is a mess to decipher, but still not so informative for the same obvious reasons. However interesting that even here M5S shows a relative overperformance in the northern suburbs and working class neighbourhoods of Naples. One thing I did not expect was the PD list specifically having its better result in Naples in the eastern periphery of Barra and San Giovanni a Teduccio, which goes against the latest conventional wisdom.

Marche -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-marche-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
We never talked about Marche. It is not a region I know particularly well, but the Northern part being the most left-leaning and the rural hilly province of Macerata being very right-leaning make sense to me. As does Mangialardi carrying the main cities in the Northern part, specifically Senigallia > Jesi - Ancona > Pesaro - Urbino (although he lost Fano by a lot). I find interesting that the right carried the historic centre and the seaside of Pesaro and the left carried all the surrounding neighbourhoods. Another case of right-bourgeois old town vs. working class additions I guess? I didn't know that.

Apulia -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-puglia-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
We never talked about Apulia either, but it looks like another mess. Also, this is a region I know even less than Marche. I have never been to Apulia in my life. I can only say that seeing that San Nicola (the historic centre) in Bari, while still won by Emiliano, had him doing sizably worse than in all surrounding neighbourhoods, with the same holding true for the M5S candidate, is a good indication that we have another right-bourgeois old town here. Also it looks like the Bari metro area was really wot won it for Emiliano.

Tuscany -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-toscana-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
THERE ARE TOO MANY THINGS TO SAY ABOUT TUSCANY
I probably know it even more in detail than Liguria lmao. I'll answer to eventual questions, rather than starting myself. Or maybe I'll start myself, but on another day.
One funny thing I noticed though is that precincts in the city of Florence have really odd shapes.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

[Battista Minola 1616]

Speaking of those maps, I will make some Tuscany discourse because I can't help myself:
I find it interesting by probably unsurprising that Carrara centre and Massa centre were narrow left victories whereas Marina di Carrara and Marina di Massa (which by the way are both boring and not remotely worth Viareggio) were narrow right victories.
The effect was much bigger in Pisa with the historic centre and immediate surroundings being more than comfortable victories for Giani and Marina di Pisa/Tirrenia big for Ceccardi, although I should note that Pisa's geography is quite different from Carrara's and Massa's.
Kind of surprised that Viareggio's centre voted (very narrowly) for Giani, not necessarily that Torre del Lago Puccini is so right-wing.
Lucca is hilarious, I have basically only been inside the old citadel - wonderful place, which apparently voted to the left, but was outvoted by the vast periphery to the west (the periphery to the east is the separate town of Capannori instead).
Also lmao Florence. Even the precincts containing Piazza della Signoria, the Uffizi, Piazza della Repubblica and Palazzo Strozzi, which must be absurdly rich, voted Giani by double digits. And are surrounded by historic centre precincts which were mostly left landslides, which are surrounded by more peripheric precincts which for the most part were even bigger left landslides. Florence is just something else.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.

My dad just wants to see M5S (and Conte) nuked out of orbit. He hates PD too but less, and the right-wing/far-right but even less.

Renzi is indeed an egotistical blowhard, although I have to admit I respect the ability to con people he showed in 2014 and 2015 (remember when PD took 41% at the Europeans? F***ing insane) even if it didn't last. He seems serious but I don't know what his endgame exactly is. He's not gonna bring IV from 3% to relevancy if he topples the government.
I hope for a serious proportional system and not this mess too. I don't know why Renzi opposes that, but it seems to me that the people proposing majoritarianism are always something something neoliberal/lolbertarian/Moderate Hero. I think Mattarella's successor is up in the air in any case, and I am not that concerned with Presidential elections, but I see the merits of your point.
One streak I personally don't want to break is that of having parliamentary elections in the first half of the year, but that's just me.

[Battista Minola 1616]

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November.

Oh so you were once conned by Renzi too? Proving my point.

Entirely agreed on the date of the election. May/June have also the nice touch of coinciding with the end of the school year.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).

Okay, I can see there is a Wiki article under the Italy name.(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semestre_bianco ).

But why did they make that rule?

Presumably to avoid that a President on their way out could use the opportunity to artificially lenghten their term and/or to engineer a new Parliament more favourable to their re-election or the election of someone from their political wing.
Of course the President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament just on a whim, but the amount of soft power that's available to them is theoretically unlimited (to make a real life example, it's pretty clear that Berlusconi was sort of forced to resign by Napolitano in 2011).