Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Battista Minola 1616]

The Senate today confirmed its confidence to the Conte II government with 156 Yes, 140 No and 16 abstentions (coming from Italia Viva).

I am not exactly *happy* - not the right word - however:
- Renzi: owned
- Salvini: owned

[Battista Minola 1616]

Based Nencini. Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Based Nencini. Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).

Considering that most of Craxi's people became the leading cadre of Forza Italia, the rump PSI being to the right of PD is far from surprising.

I know, and I always find that puzzling. It only makes sense if you think that by the early 90's the PSI did not have a purpose anymore except pwning the PCI and promoting Craxi's personal preferences... which is probably pretty close to the mark, lol.

[and being a graft machine, of course, but that was hardly distinctive in 1992 Italy]

[Battista Minola 1616]

Apparently Andrea Cioffi has become viral on social media after his speech last Tuesday. And understandably so!

So I want to share his "glucose" speech with you, because it's just beautiful. Translated by yours truly.

To know when a system is circular, it suffices to think about the glucose cycle.
The sun, motor of life, when the green of spring explodes and covers earth with frisson, power, vital energy.
When you look at a leaf against the light and see its structure, its internal veins, and you know that those tunnels connect air and earth, leaves that make it so that air is enriched with what at the beginning of history was a poison: oxygen.
There, on the leaf's surface, a microcosm of affections and magic is recreated. A world dominated by the union, interaction, and transformation of simple elements, from hydrogen to oxygen, from nitrogen to potassium.
A series of elements spinning, dancing around their mentor: carbon. And there, on the leaf's surface, love is born, when carbon dioxide enters the green and dancing beneath the sunshine, inebriated from its heat, it breaks apart, leaving oxygen free to fly and carbon free to rejoin with the other guests at the feast to define a marvellous chain, glucose, sweet nectar flowing up to the fruit.
And from there it enters a child's mouth, it flows into their blood and feeds the part that most needs it, the part where thought is conceived, where questions and answers are conceived, that nerve cell which produces love and pain, thought and memory.
And it is in that cell that carbon parts from its old dance partners and through the blood vessels arrives to the lungs, where it rejoins with its two old oxygen friends, and combining back with them is free again to fly in the air, and a new ride starts, entering again a gull's wings, a cricket's legs, a worm's blood, a lion's claws.
Life. Life.
Now, President of the Council of Ministers, it's for that life, for that love perpetuating between carbon and oxygen that all good-willed people are asking that you carry on. Love requires courage, and as an Athenian historian, a father of the polis, said, certainly the bravest are those who have the clearest vision of what awaits them, of the glory as much as of the danger - and in spite of that confront it and don't flee, I would add. So carry on with head held high President, the Five Star Movement is with you.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...

I am not sure you are referring to this, but the only thing that comes to my mind is when the 2019 edition of the World Congress of Families was hosted in Verona. It made some news but basically everyone forgot about it soon afterwards. Salvini's speech last Tuesday felt very 'Americanized' in its entirety, but in all likelihood that part was mostly an aside and irrelevant to the Debate [to the dismay of Tommaso Scandroglio and other r a d t r a d s].

[Battista Minola 1616]

Anyway, if Salvini or Meloni are serious about undermining legal abortion once they (inevitably) get their shot at power, I can only hope Italian women will make them pay a high price for it. This isn't America and it isn't even Poland. We have a broad consensus around safe, legal, subsidized and tightly-regulated abortion. It's not my ideal if I would design it from scratch, but right now upsetting it in any direction would just blow up in everyone's faces.

Nah, they don't actually have any plans to do anything to law n. 194.

Also *checks demographic trends* soon there won't be abortions anymore in Italy anyway because people will just stop making kids

Forgive my black humour pls

Maybe a bit obscure, but figured this was the best place to ask: what was the ideology of the Italian Communist Party in the 80s? Or maybe more precisely the last 5 or 10 years before it split into the PRC and the PDS? Were any of the party leaders/politicians still actual doctrinaire Marxists/Marxist-LeninistS by that point, or had everyone more or less evolved into sort of milquetoast Euro social democrats?

The party under Natta (1984-1988) had currents going in both directions, and the main atmosphere was just that of "wilderness years". The most notable thing was when it called a referendum to repeal changes that the Craxi government had made to the sliding wage scale (TL;DR automatically indexing wages to inflation)... and lost.
The party under Occhetto (1988-1991) had a psychodrama induced by the fall of the Berlin Wall, of course, and the rift between the two tendencies opened bigly. Obviously the majority was just going along the transition to social democrats, and indeed PDS is normally considered the "official heir" to PCI.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Also *checks demographic trends* soon there won't be abortions anymore in Italy anyway because people will just stop making kids

Forgive my black humour pls

True

And of course, every government's solution to that is to make patronizing ads scolding women for not having more kids instead of, you know, creating the socio-economic conditions that make family-building possible.

Honestly I am not sure what kind of ads you're referring to.

[Battista Minola 1616]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-24/italy-s-conte-resisting-pressure-to-resign-as-senate-vote-looms

What?  There is another Senate vote ?

That is a vote on a report on the state of the judiciary system that will be presented by Minister of Justice Alfonso Bonafede. Of course it is not binding for confidence matters (well, unless the government calls a confidence question upon the vote, and I have no idea whether it shall happen) but in any case it might make Conte look extremely bad if the report was turned down by the Senate.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

No, it can mean basically anything, although I assume that one is the preferential option (actually, do I? it all feels so in flux).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

No, it can mean basically anything, although I assume that one is the preferential option (actually, do I? it all feels so in flux).

As best as you can tell, is the current Italian government situation very much changing day by day and all the politicians are just improvising as they go along? Or, do you think this was all part of some months long "plan" (even if sort of clumsy and shambolic) on the part of the governing parties and Italia Viva? Because all of the Conte government drama and activity in the last month seems sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing lol

It may be part of a "plan" on part of Italia Viva, but I strongly doubt anyone else was intending this (especially the other governing parties - I don't see what they gain out of this). Conte may play 3D chess sometimes, but definitely not 12D chess. And you know, all of Italy's history is sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Giuseppe Conte resigned today, in the end. The crisis of government has officially started. Of course the Conte II government will remain in charge for current affairs until the next one is sworn in. If the crisis lasts long enough, its length could surpass that of the Gentiloni and Monti governments. Let alone if God forbid we go to new elections.
Going by people, it feels very weird, but Conte is now less than two months away from surpassing Renzi for time spent as head of government.

Now all bets are off, I guess. The wild ride is going to get even more wild.

Either way, Salvini Meloni ought to be feeling better about his her position than she has since the Summer 2019. I hope if we get some type of at least short-term governmental agreement, the parties manage to make a more proportional election law before we go to the polls again.

FTFY

[Battista Minola 1616]

A new euRopEist CentRist parliamentary group has been founded in the Senate. It is called "Europeisti-MAIE-Centro Democratico" (MAIE being a hilarious party representing Italians abroad - Antonio may have more to say about this). The group among other people "borrowed" PD Senator Tatjana Rojc (who remains a member of PD) to reach the magic number of 10, which is sad because I would have much respect for a writer and literary critic representing the Slovenian minority in Parliament, as long as she doesn't make silly stuff like this. Also the group seems to be taking yet other random indies with it and growing beyond 10, so that move was useless.
Some of these people are implying that they would immediately back Conte if there were an election and he got into the fray... which would be more pukeworthy than Monti's Scelta Civica back in 2013 honestly.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Also totally unrelated but I am enjoying this thread much more than I would have expected when I first entered it (as can be seen in my very first post here), which I attribute to a variety of reasons:

- I am less of a knee-jerk contrarian (and possibly more of a leftist) than I was last August.
- The Lega ilk have not been in the news that much since they stopped being in government, which means I don't have to suffer a bunch of people (foreigners especially) debating iS sAlvIni a FasCisT and other similar things that get to my nerves.
- I have in some sense taken control of the thread's day-to-day (sorry, Antonio).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).

Well, that's relatively optimistic.

I once had a dream where elections were coming up and Lega+FdI were guaranteed to win 60%+ of the vote, and the only question was which of the two parties would come out ahead and lead the coalition, so I was preparing to cast a very reluctant vote for FdI. Now that's nightmarish.

If that nightmare came to pass I would take the opportunity to cast the most hilarious ballot of my life.
Or otherwise I would just hop on the bandwagon to try and get more Social Democracy But Reactionary and less Neoliberalism But Reactionary.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I know that there are more important things to watch about Italy now, mafia gonna mafia after all, plus it doesn't really fit this thread - but could anybody tell me more about the 'Ndrangheta trial that started two weeks ago?

_{Slovakposting again, but I'm curious since there are well-founded suspicions that those guys had friends in high places here, up to and including Cabinet Office.}

Yayyyyy!
I do remember that they talked about 'Ndrangheta Slovak connections.

This new process is a maxi-processo (using the terminology invented at the time of Falcone & Borsellino) with some three hundreds of defendants, all sorts of criminal charges, and basically the entire mafia of Vibo Valentia, based around the Mancuso family, is involved. It's hopefully a landmark point.

[Battista Minola 1616]

ＲＥＮＺＩＭＡＮＩＡ

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1355525215938342912

LOL!

2.4% for Italia Viva is actually below their polling average.

[Battista Minola 1616]

What's with all the tiny irrelevant left of centre parties? Why are there so many of them?

And more importantly, will that hurt PD in some way?

Because:

- the Greens want to pretend they're relevant
- the Radicals (+Europa) need to exist because otherwise who would the overedumucated liberal bourgeoisie and the #woke university kids vote for?
- Renzi gonna Renzi
- Calenda refused to be in a party in government with the M5S, but also didn't join +E because reasons
- the more hard-edged social democrats need their own party/coalition (La Sinistra), understandably

And of course there are the half dozen k-onmmunist parties, all basically irrelevant, all presumably hating each other's guts, and of which PC is the largest.

Well, Italia Viva and Azione definitely hurt PD's standing in the polls. It's impossible to know about the others. As for the future, it depends on what will be the electoral law and what will be the coalitions, both of which are question marks.

But really, personalistic parties is one of Italy's favourite sports in the last quarter century, and this gives no sign to be changing.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Who is claiming they're going to vote Italia Viva anyway? I mean, Renzi fanboys, but who the christ is a Renzi fanboy in this the year 2021?

A friend of mine (sort of) is a Renzi fanboy (sort of - he was more of one some years ago) though he isn't in Italia Viva and apparently he's leaning towards Azione.

Also my paternal grandfather, of all people, is now an Italia Viva voter and I'm still trying to understand why - it might have to do with whatever local administrator he's friends with or something. He's basically an old school Christian democrat and I wouldn't call him a Renzi fanboy really.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Tomorrow (well, today, because it's past midnight in Italy) Roberto Fico, the man of Slovak coincidences*, should refer to Sergio Mattarella about his, ahem, government explorations. I am not sure what he is going to say, really.

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.



*it should be noted that Roberto Fico is read ['fiko] whereas Robert Fico is read ['fitsɔ].

[Battista Minola 1616]

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?

I am not sure what seats you mean (in the European Parliament? Yeah, but that's not very surprising) but what you are describing now for the next election is the modal outcome. Of course Lega will do much better in the North regardless, and Fratelli d'Italia will most likely do better in the South (but best of all in the Centre, or precisely in what we can call "enlarged Lazio"), but that's beside the point.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Yeah, I meant the EP. But - well, I'm not sure if I misunderstood your answer or you misunderstood my question. What I meant is, FdI will do well in the south/enlarged Lazio, but will Lega still keep a significant vote in those places? And vice versa.

Yes, my answer was that it will keep a signficant vote in those places, and vice versa. I think the results of the regional elections (as unreliable as they may be) point in that direction too.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Not shocking to anyone who knows something about Italian culture tbh.