538 model & poll tracker thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 58184 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,753
United States


« on: August 12, 2020, 04:41:11 AM »
« edited: August 12, 2020, 04:44:51 AM by VARepublican »
AZ: Biden 56%
CO: Biden 84%
FL: Biden 65%
GA: Trump 66%
IA: Trump 68%
ME: Biden 77%
ME-02: Trump 64%
MI: Biden 81%
MN: Biden 72%
NE-02: Biden 54%
NV: Biden 77%
NH: Biden 72%
NM: Biden 90%
NC: Trump 51%
OH: Trump 55%
PA: Biden 74%
TX: Trump 71%
VA: Biden 92%
WI: Biden 70%

AK: Trump 81%
KS: Trump 94%
MO: Trump 87%
MT: Trump 88%
SC: Trump 87%
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,753
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2020, 05:32:50 AM »
It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out by Nate Silver

Quote
Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,753
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2020, 03:30:28 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on August 12, 2020, 03:06:22 PM
Regardless of what you think about the model’s approach to uncertainty about the future, even giving Biden a 93% chance to win today seems low.
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