United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[WD]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1747751843453604071?s=20

[WD]

Another round of "it's definitely 1992, trust us" in the i. Includes all those iron-clad arguments we've come to know and love:

The internal polls are better:
“Some of us are doubting the methodology they’re using,” one senior Tory source has said in response to Labour poll leads of more than 20 points. “Internal party polling is showing that it is a lot closer with Red Wall seats at 10 points and in some places we’re only 5 points behind.”

Labour's lead is soft:
A former Tory Cabinet minister told i that he believed Labour’s support was “wide but soft” and said: “We expect that [lead] to start to fade to 10 per cent or under and that makes the election a contest rather than a shoo-in for Labour. Being asked for your preference today is very different from how you are going to vote in six months.”

Byelection turnout is low, so there's no enthusiasm for Labour:
“The [by-election] results were not good for Labour,” another Tory MP told i. “In Wellingborough, they got around 100 more than 2019 when they should be way ahead. 2019 was a bad year. In Kingswood, they were 5000 less than 2019.

Who is this even for, at this stage?

The by-election stuff is less so cope and more a literal misunderstanding of how elections work. Labour got 500ish less votes in the ‘94 Dudley West by-election than at the 1992 GE in that seat. Clearly they were doomed….

[WD]

First poll to have the Tories below 20% since Truss I believe, and one of the few in the entire history of polling. Not the most reputable of pollsters but still quite amusing.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1765910523952918586?s=20

More reputable poll here, but still the same trend of the bottom falling out:

https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1765997110749483467?s=20

[WD]

Well…if there IS going to be an election in May, we’ll find in the next 10-12 days or so? We shall see.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1774143859053715776
The Tories are still Official Opposition, good poll for them.

Time to accept that < 100 Tory MPs is a realistic outcome here

[WD]

How much danger is Truss actually in?

[WD]

How much does it really matter in the end? Either they lose 200+ MPs next month, sometime in the summer, or in the fall.

[WD]

Is this election less or more competitive than 1997? Don't really think a more boring election is possible now that it's one maje drama is over.

Put it this way. 165 Tory MPs after this election would be considered a miraculous overperformance.

[WD]

He’s going to be absolutely dreadful on the campaign trail.

[WD]

So far, not the campaign of a party that is going to meaningfully narrow their polling deficit. The opposite, if anything.

[WD]

Would kill to see what’s being said in the WhatsApp group chats right now.

[WD]

Well, time to get this thing going.




I'm starting my expectations at the benchmark of approximately (so number are neater): 420 Labour, 140 Conservative, 50 Lib-Dem, 16 SNP, 3 Plaid, 3 Others including the Speaker, and 18 obviously from Northern Ireland. I have a rough list, but I would prefer not to go into seat-by-seat detail at this moment.  

People are forgetting how high of a climb this would be for Labour.  In the famous Blair Landslide they gained 146 seats. This prediction would be around that much. Plus for whatever reason right wing parties tend to fall in line and come around more than left wing parties who are overly concerned with “purity” … I happen to like Kier Starmer a lot. But the British public don’t - Labour should win this by default and it’ll be a good showing but polls tighten during a campaign we all know that and the inflation numbers are just enough to put the “but maybe” in the mind of disenchanted Tory voters - so  for sure a likely good night for Labour but the 400’s is unlikely and the poll of polls showing greater than the first Blair Landslide is taking it a little too far IMO.

So a rough idea of where I think this is going…

Labour                     360  (+155)

Conservative           210   (-134)
Liberal Democrat      35   (+20)
SNP                           25   (-18)

This isn’t really true.

[WD]

The Virgin Jeremy Corbyn vs. The Chad Praful Nargund.

On a related note, how do people think Labour would be doing in the polls if still led by Corbyn?

I believe this hypothetical was asked in a poll while back and it was 35-34 LAB-CON.

[WD]

- Announce soaking wet in the rain
-Ask a crowd if they’re looking forward to a football tournament they didn’t qualify for
-Visit the birthplace of the Titanic

Just going to be a daily thing isn’t it?

[WD]

It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

Andrea Leadsom reportedly to make it 80.

Given she was the minister behind the inane "lets try and oust sunak right now for six months more pay" idea, not unsurprising.

An hilarous sub plot was her efforts for years to get back into ministerial office; she was ofc the person who offered the amendment which sought to save Owen Paterson which some of us take as the moment that the Conservatives begun crashing down

Actually just occurred to me - November 2021 was the last time they lead in any opinion polling.

[WD]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

[WD]

lol

[WD]

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat? Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

“Safe” in the sense he’ll probably win by 5K or so.

[WD]

Looking good Mr. Prime Minister

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795485183073775620

[WD]

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1795702461115633730
YouGov poll for Sky News:
Labour: 47 (+3)
Tories: 20 (-2)
Lib Dems: 9 (-)
Reform UK: 12 (-2)
Greens: 7 (+1)
SNP: 3 (-)

Plugging that into Electoral Calculus makes Ed Davey leader of the Opposition. We’ll see if any upcoming MRPs “confirm” that or not.

Interesting. Note the decline in the Reform vote % too

[WD]

Starmer is going to have one of the most loyal PLPs ever, isn’t he?

[WD]

https://twitter.com/julianknight15/status/1795952761743560853

[WD]

Two more polls. Changes small, but YouGov’s topline remains startling, so thought worth including.

BMG:

• LAB: 43% (+2)
• CON: 27% (+2)
• RFM: 11% (-3)
• LDM: 9% (=)
• GRN: 6% (=)

YouGov:

• LAB: 46% (-1)
• CON: 21% (+1)
• RFM: 15% (+3)
• LDM: 8% (-1)
• GRN: 6% (-1)
• SNP: 2% (-1)

Reform’s % is all over the place in these polls. Either getting squeezed or still holding steady in the teens. We’ll see which one is correct, I suppose.

[WD]

What exactly does a major political party do where there is a better chance of them falling to 3rd than forming government again?