KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[WD]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

Yeah but muh Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since the 1930s

[WD]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

Yeah but muh Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since the 1930s

I’m not going to waste my time arguing with this guy. When I lurked herein 2018, he kept on trying to assert Catharine Baker and a bunch of Republican Congressional seats were likely Republican holds because of the primary turnout. We all know how that turned out

Also, no one is even really considering this seriously on the board unless Kobach wins the primary so I don’t see why there’s a debate over it

Trumps internals are showing his numbers going down here, so it’s not so far fetched that KS could still be competitive with Marshall

[WD]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

Yeah but muh Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since the 1930s

I’m not going to waste my time arguing with this guy. When I lurked herein 2018, he kept on trying to assert Catharine Baker and a bunch of California Republican Congressional seats were likely Republican holds because of the primary turnout. We all know how that turned out

Also, no one is even really considering this seriously on the board unless Kobach wins the primary so I don’t see why there’s a debate over it

Those literally should have been Republican holds if not for Tom Steyer and his bulls**t. This is off-topic but that is one of the reasons I cannot stand him. He took away good, moderate voices just so he could have a platform to make a vanity presidential run and jerk himself off.

Along with Trump and his incompetence on the pandemic, pretty much everything to do with Tom Steyer and California in 2018 are the things in politics that really makes my blood boil.

That’s just politics. You can’t complain about campaign advertising

[WD]

Congratulations, Senator Marshall.

This race still isn’t a sure thing. Lean R at most.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

Trump probably wasn't going to win in 2016 if it wasn't for Putin, so that strategy made sense.

On the other hand, in this case, it's a moot point, as no matter who the Republicans nominate, they should win by about five.

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Yes, I’m sure a state that regularly elects Democrats to the governorship would NEVER vote for a Democrat for Senate against a Nazi. JFC, think before you post.

Kansas has elected 8 Democratic governors since 1933 and zero Democratic senators.

I can use Wikipedia too. What’s your point? I’m disputing the notion that a state that has little problem voting for Democrats at the state level and even US House level would send a literal Nazi to the Senate over a Democrat.

What the hell is this thread? AL would even send a Pedo to the Senate. Why on earth would KS, a much Bluer state elect Joesph f***ing Goebbles?

[WD]

Hot take: KS is more likely to flip than MT at this point

[WD]

This is obviously still a very competitive race, but of all the red state Democratic challengers, is it fair to assume that Bollier will be hurt most by RBG's death?

I think we should wait until polling is done before making any assumptions but yeah, this is the most likely.