It'll largely depend on the War's popularity but all but the staunchest of isolationists/non-interventionists within the "MAGA" movement would rally behind Trump, as Trump makes an excuse that many of them believe. He'd also likely win over neocons who didn't vote for him in 2016 assuming that the war is largely divided but popular among the GOP as well as do better with seniors as Covid didn't happen but this wouldn't be enough as Biden would still narrowly win. Trump claims that Iran stole it instead of the Dems which leads to hostile anti-Muslim protests but ultimately 1/6 doesn't happen.
