BC municipal elections (Oct 15 - today!)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I expected Sim to win, but this is a huge landslide for a non-incumbent in a multi-candidate race, let alone for a centre-right candidate in a city that overwhelmingly votes for the left. Although as we all know, municipal politics in Canada doesn't operate on the same political spectrum as federal or provincial, hence why Edmonton's mayor is a former Liberal cabinet minister and Toronto's mayor is a former PCPO leader. Still, this is a massive vote-of-no-confidence for Kennedy Stewart's approach to crime and public safety.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It seems to me that the scale of Ken Sim's victory in  Vancouver is much larger than expected.  Is that right?  If so is that not a harbinger for the next BC general election and federal election?

As a general rule of thumb, municipal elections in Canada aren't indicative of federal and provincial trends. It may still be good news for the BC Liberals and federal Conservatives if they can capitalize on the "anti-establishment" mood of Vancouverites, but that has less to do with ideology and more to do with a general feeling of malaise.

But yes, Ken Sim's victory is larger than expected. Polls were tight (the last one literally had Sim and Kennedy tied), and from my reading, the media agreed with the consensus that it would be a close one (although the media has a clear incentive to push the narrative of a close race, so that's not always the best indicator)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It seems to me that the scale of Ken Sim's victory in  Vancouver is much larger than expected.  Is that right?  If so is that not a harbinger for the next BC general election and federal election?

As a general rule of thumb, municipal elections in Canada aren't indicative of federal and provincial trends. It may still be good news for the BC Liberals and federal Conservatives if they can capitalize on the "anti-establishment" mood of Vancouverites, but that has less to do with ideology and more to do with a general feeling of malaise.

But yes, Ken Sim's victory is larger than expected. Polls were tight (the last one literally had Sim and Kennedy tied), and from my reading, the media agreed with the consensus that it would be a close one (although the media has a clear incentive to push the narrative of a close race, so that's not always the best indicator)

Only the Researchco poll. The Mainstreet poll had Sim up 34-28 over Stewart with Hardwick at 18% and the Leger poll had Sim with 50% to 21% for Stewart and 21% for Hardwick. I believe all 3 polls showed somewhere around 40% undecided.  I think clearly what happened is the Hardwick supporters largely ended up voting for Ken Sim.

Okay, but my point still stands, only Leger showed Sim with 50% support, most others had him in the 30s. So it's fair to say that it was a larger victory than expected.