It would be hilarious if CA-GOV 2021 ended up being Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017, but I don’t see it happening. I do buy Newson's exceptionally weak numbers among Hispanics in this race, though — not this poor, but fairly close to his numbers among whites.
Not only that, but Larry Elder, a libertarian republican, leads the pack to replace him. It would be so strange to have a man of his ideology govern friggin' California in the post-Trump era.
Even though he will be able to do jack, I kinda agree. It'll be a huge rallying cry for the GOP base come the midterms while the Dem base will be in complete denial and shock, believing Elder stole the election or that it was just a fluke.
Why is Elder leading the field, though? Is it mostly a name recognition thing/anti-establishment sentiment? Also, isn’t it more likely than not that Democrats will aggressively consolidate around one replacement option (while still encouraging voters to vote NO on the recall, obviously)?
Larry is massive in the LA conservative movement, and has been for longer than I've been alive. He's familiar with every republican left here.
