CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lolololololololololol

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1374562153139728387?s=20

I mean, he could dump the cash if he wanted. I encourage and beg for his entry, can't be worse.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Probolsky Research survey of CA:

Newsom fav/unfav: 42-39 (all California voters)
47-37 (likely recall voters)

Recall Q: 40% support recall, 46% oppose (all voters)

35% support recall, 52% oppose (likely recall voters)

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2021/03/23/newsom-recall-poll/

Absenting a big scandal dropping Newsom will comfortably win.

Honestly think the race data there is the most interesting stuff, namely Latinos being 44.5% support to 41.4% oppose, and blacks being 18.8% support to 71.9% oppose. Really makes sense in the context of who's being hurt by Newsom's brownie point based covid rules.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Probolsky Research survey of CA:

Newsom fav/unfav: 42-39 (all California voters)
47-37 (likely recall voters)

Recall Q: 40% support recall, 46% oppose (all voters)

35% support recall, 52% oppose (likely recall voters)

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2021/03/23/newsom-recall-poll/

Absenting a big scandal dropping Newsom will comfortably win.

Honestly think the race data there is the most interesting stuff, namely Latinos being 44.5% support to 41.4% oppose, and blacks being 18.8% support to 71.9% oppose. Really makes sense in the context of who's being hurt by Newsom's brownie point based covid rules.

I think also that there is a lot more partisanship among Black voters, leading them to be skeptical about a Republican-run recall. Latinos are more likely to be both/either conservative or far-left comparatively, so they are more comfortable with recalling Newsom because they don't see him as intrinsically "on their team."

Makes perfect sense, but still, 18.8% for recall is super high, from a study I found, 2003 recall support from Blacks was only 21%. I also personally know fellow Latinos, especially in LA, have had lots of problems with Covid, just due to the jobs and market they take part in, I don't have any black family to base how adverse the affect has been on them.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

And this sir, is the into I like to see. Thank you for your contribution, and as such, I'll give my own. I've been informed by Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares that 2 SoCal Dem Assemblymen have been making the rounds and testing the water for a run.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

My only question is, do they get like pay for taking a smaller plane up, would they charter one together? "A couple of the Assemblymen I fly up to Sacramento with", iirc that was the wording, all in the context of dems running. In my mind it was some regular flight from LAX, but honestly might be too "low"  for them. Burbank makes lots of sense though, less hassle certainly.
Looking at your 3 picks, Holden had his Wikipedia page edited in late December, Chau in late January, and Nazarian in June of 2018. His is written the most like campaign excerpts though. Thought if any had super recent edits it'd help point us.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

My only question is, do they get like pay for taking a smaller plane up, would they charter one together? "A couple of the Assemblymen I fly up to Sacramento with", iirc that was the wording, all in the context of dems running. In my mind it was some regular flight from LAX, but honestly might be too "low"  for them. Burbank makes lots of sense though, less hassle certainly.
Looking at your 3 picks, Holden had his Wikipedia page edited in late December, Chau in late January, and Nazarian in June of 2018. His is written the most like campaign excerpts though. Thought if any had super recent edits it'd help point us.

My friend schedules a lot of commercial flights, so I don’t think lawmakers flying coach from Burbank or LAX is that big of an issue. It’s only like an hour long flight.

Yeah I didn't think so, but still, knowing people, they could get some importance stuck in their head.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

Looking online, Chris Holden has specifically said he opposes the recall. Nazarian and Chau have both praised Newsom really highly on social media recently. Obv that doesn't rule out a No On Recall, Yes On Bustamante situation, but given how this is breaking down on pro-and-anti-Newsom lines, might suggest something.

So far (halfway through the 20 SoCal Dem Assemblymen) the most likely person is Richard Bloom of Santa Monica.

I had thought about Bloom, but he seems like he would be far more likely to use LAX. Now, that doesn’t mean that Assm. woman M-V doesn’t use LAX, but I would bet that she uses Burbank because LA area traffic is of course infamous.

Bloom seems to have a relatively active Wikipedia page as well, lots of edits the last few months.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I think you guys are reading a little too much into the airport thing? Like, the vast majority of people just use LAX regardless of traffic.

I ruled out people who oppose the recall or recently praised Newsom publicly, and people who are currently in their first term in the Assembly. I got this list:

Richard Bloom
Freddie Rodriguez
Eduardo Garcia
Tom Daly

Rodriguez and Garcia both endorsed Villa in 2018, for what that's worth. Daly isn't on social media so I couldn't really pin him down.

EDIT: Bloom stated opposition to the recall and praised Newsom in this piece. So we can rule him out.

Perhaps, just gave us an area of connection.
Well well well, Mr. Garcia here had his page updated yesterday.
Daly has a long one, though that may be virtue of his long career. Being that he's from Orange, and Newsom barley carried the county, that could be an interesting angle for a base.
Rodriguez had his page edited yesterday too, but it was by the same guy as Garcia, so I don't think that actually matters anymore.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

SNIP
EDIT2: Forgot to put Al Muratsuchi on the list.

This is Atlas though. We thrive on “Rain in NoVA means Dems are going to lose” types of tea leaf reading.

So for Al Muratsuchi, we have an edit that changed his personal life section, from

"Muratsuchi grew up in Okinawa, then administered by the United States military, and his father was a civilian employee of the United States Army. Due to his father's job he was raised on various military bases overseas.[1] He attended the University of California, Berkeley and UCLA School of Law."

to
"Muratsuchi grew up in Okinawa, then administered by the United States military. His father, a 2nd-generation Gifu descent, was a civilian employee of the United States Army, and his mother came from Tochigi Prefecture. Due to his father's job he was raised on various military bases overseas. He attended the University of California, Berkeley and UCLA School of Law. He is married to Hiroko Higuchi (樋口博子), a columnist from Ashiya, Hyōgo."

In addition, both of his twitter accounts, have, logically, been filled with tweets about Asian hate crimes. Combine this with someone increasing all of the Asian references in his bio, seems like up to something, though this is a stretch. He also has a tweet that seems kinda weird, saying that the State of State isn't the same during Covid, just felt kinda off to me.
https://twitter.com/AMuratsuchi/status/1369548587458170880

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

He also has a tweet that seems kinda weird, saying that the State of State isn't the same during Covid, just felt kinda off to me.
https://twitter.com/AMuratsuchi/status/1369548587458170880

That is something of an odd tweet, I will say.

I'm not sure it means anything, but, along with the update, his utter lack of denunciation of recall, it seems like he could be our guy.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

On another tangent, oh God
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1374935649787121664

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

On another tangent, oh God
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1374935649787121664

Digging into twitter more, I found this site which claims that Newsom is having an affair with a staffer.

I would consider this unverified until a better source comes along, but this could be it.

iirc he slept with a staffers wife or something before, so wouldn't be out of his wheelhouse.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I’m honestly kind of underwhelmed? Like I thought this was going to be “Gavin groped a staffer” or “Gavin made up the metrics he used to reopen the state early”

Based on how overblown folks are making it in the last 24 hours (Whatever "it" even is right now), it was never gonna be as juicy as the suspense made it seem.

Also, haven't seen anything juicy outside of that one Cerritos site. And with the announcement of eligibility requirements being lifted in 3 weeks, I'm sure it'll be buried today (Though I'm sure the timing will bring about conspiracies).

Though that also makes me wonder where this rumor mill started in the last 24 hours. Random Twitter? "Anonymous sources"? Just seems like typical forum overreaction (Not even getting into the airport & Wikipedia edits discussion).

Well, that's for trying to find the two people I've been told are interested

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

She’d probably be the least embarrassed/fascistic Republican the party can put forward

The problem with her is that being a transgender woman is a great way to alienate Republicans and being a Republican is a great way to alienate Democrats.

All I see is a fourth semi-serious GOP'er attempting to enter a field already too divided to allow the party to walk the narrow tightrope to victory.

This, though I've got a hunch the House members are gonna try to line behind Faulconer, having gotten that vibe from Mike, it won't matter, if dems have only one person running, they'll win

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

1.5 million is a very low threshold. Still, this recall would've never happened if it wasn't for the French Laundry incident happening within the 4 month extension window. I do worry that, unless some reforms are put in place, there'll be a serious GOP-led recall for every Democratic Governor in the near-future. Only a third of Trump 2016 voters are needed.

Oh I hope there is, I'll need some income stream after Mike gets drawn out by a stacked commission.
On that note, wow, this is DOA. Shame, could've had someone good.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

But what would happen if you failed to vote for the replacement candidate, but yes on the recall?

Absolutely nothing? what? Your vote Yes still counts, it's just like if you only voted for Prez, just cuz you didn't vote for any other office, your vote for Prez doesn't become invalidated.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

But what would happen if you failed to vote for the replacement candidate, but yes on the recall?

Absolutely nothing? what? Your vote Yes still counts, it's just like if you only voted for Prez, just cuz you didn't vote for any other office, your vote for Prez doesn't become invalidated.

I see. But what happens if you vote "yes" on the recall, but for none of the replacement candidates?

Well if you vote yes on recall, but none of replacements, the same thing would occur, except ofc, you'd get a stern letter saying you messed up.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Only bringing this up because it's a local-ish story for me.


Press Enterprise: Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt to run in Newsom recall

Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt announced Friday night, April 30, that he will run for governor as a Libertarian in the upcoming recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Hewitt made the announcement before a crowd of at least 30 supporters gathered in downtown Riverside.

In an interview before speaking, Hewitt said he was running because “I’ve seen Riverside County shortchanged.” He cited the fact that the county doesn’t get its fair share of state funding and didn’t get enough coronavirus vaccine when doses were in short supply.

Hewitt’s campaign, he said, will feature a theme of “innovation overall.” Top priorities will include water, housing and education. Hewitt said he could balance his duties as a county supervisor with his campaign by skipping the ceremonial aspects of his current post.[...]

Hewitt previously formed an exploratory committee for a 2022 gubernatorial bid and said in early April he was open to running for governor next year or in a recall. If Newsom survives the recall, he would face re-election next year.

A former Calimesa mayor, Hewitt was elected in 2018 to represent the Board of Supervisors’ Fifth District, which includes the San Gorgonio Pass, Moreno Valley, Perris and Menifee. His upset win over former GOP Assemblyman Russ Bogh was lauded by the national Libertarian Party.

Hewitt is up for re-election in 2022, meaning he could run in the recall and not give up his supervisor seat.

As a supervisor, Hewitt has voted against most labor deals with county employee unions. He’s also been a critic of coronavirus business restrictions and tried unsuccessfully to get the county to forge its own reopening path.[...]

Hewitt also might face questions about a claim filed by a county employee who alleged Hewitt sexually harassed her during a visit to a Cherry Valley skilled nursing facility last May. That claim was settled for $50,000 in taxpayer funds.

Another claim, filed April 8 by a female ex-Hewitt staffer, accuses the supervisor and his chief of staff of “making disparaging and vulgar comments” and engaging in age and gender discrimination prior to the employee leaving county government. That claim is still pending, county spokeswoman Brooke Federico said.

But why? he currently holds the balance of power for the board of supervisors, it's literally libertarian controlled.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Watch all the peace loving LGBT activists say transphobic s*** about Caitlyn Jenner now that they realized she's based and red pilled.  We don't care what you do in the bedroom, if you love America, we support you.  I hereby endorse Caitlyn Jenner for governor~!

What will Gavin Newsom do without the coveted "DabbingSanta endorsement?"  At this rate, he'll never win the Random Canadian Incel vote!  

You're really just proving the point of how nasty the left can be. Calling someone you don't know an incel because you disagree with them...

I called him an Incel because he was literally using Incel terminology.

I'm assuming you're talking about "based" and "red pilled". Red pilled is literally something from The Matrix, and I just used it in a recent post actually too. Based is what you'd call "very online" slang but has nothing to do with incels. It just means awesome, kind of like the opposite of cringe. If even I know what those things are, then it's not "incel terminology".

Oh it's not just online, it's standard zoomer slang, used in normal conversation. Red pilled isn't even incel, but rather comes from the matrix and politgram culture.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

While Newsom could be a little more visionary and pass more good legislation, he's overall a pretty good governor. I don't get the disdain for him. The budget situation is excellent and a great accomplishment Brown, one of the best governors ever, handed over to him. Back in 2003, the large deficits were one reason Davis was voted out.

I can't wait to see Mr. 1000 pound bear and his buddies fail badly. And because it's so much fun, they will be slaughtered again in 2022.

The biggest non partisan issue with Newsom, and I'm sure Blairite would be happy to expand on this, is he's just bad at governing. He fails to communicate with the legislature, to the point of the Senate Majority leader screaming that from the roof tops at every meeting, just issues demands and has no negotiations, and fails to do anything. He has a super super majority in both houses, theres no excuse for him not to pass some massive change,

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I would so love for this to happen.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OANN/status/1410626412961177603

Poor Larry, always was a nice guy when I met him, he doesn't deserve this.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I would so love for this to happen.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OANN/status/1410626412961177603

Poor Larry, always was a nice guy when I met him, he doesn't deserve this.

I've actually listened to some of his show's broadcasts on the radio, when riding with my father in the past. I know from these broadcasts that he is a native of Los Angeles. But obviously, as a staunch conservative Republican in a heavily Democratic state, Elder would be the definition of a sacrificial lamb, and like Jenner, would lose by 60-40% at a minimum if he got into the runoff.

yeah, it's a shame. He's actually been pretty libertarian, and actually moderated their debate in 2016.