Predict the 2022 Senate Election if Trump Won

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It would depend on further court/Congress-mandated encroachment on voting rights and regulations, but assuming that part of the system remains similar to how it was in 2020 and assuming Democrats win the GA runoffs (the $2000 checks backed by Trump would remain a huge political issue), I'd guess Democrats hold their 50 and gain NC, PA and WI while making serious but ultimately failing attempts to contest AK, FL, KS, MO and OH.

In this scenario, Sununu would avoid running and Kander would opt to give it another go. The national environment would depend on Trump's second term which could easily be much worse received than the first.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Democrats would have likely netted between 4 and 7 seats, enough to flip the Senate. For starters, I'm assuming Loeffler wins the runoff. In your scenario, Perdue probably squeaked by with just over 50%, so Republicans would hold the Senate and Democrats would be far less motivated to turn out. However, they would likely flip GA in 2022, along with PA, WI and NC.

FL, OH and IA would be tossups, but I think Democrats would have picked up at least one, with their best bet being an open seat in OH or IA. Sweeping all three would be possible on a very good night.

Perdue would still go to a runoff with 49.9%.

Well, considering Dems won both seats after a Trump loss, I have to assume they would also win both seats after a Trump win.  So the Senate is 50/50 and R-controlled through Pence unless James won in Michigan (he would need more that just a uniform swing).  

If baffles me that this can be a serious take.

Republicans lost the first runoff in 20 years by 1% because they were demoralised after a stunning loss in a state they considered home turf, yet if Democrats had lost you think this wouldn't have affected turnout in a state everyone predicted they would lose?

Isn't is absolutely obvious that Black turnout would have collapsed after a Biden defeat? Just look at... every other runoff, including the one on the very same ballot but which the media didn't talk about as much?

No. The news cycle was moving too quickly for it to be certain that demoralisation would decide the runoff and Republican demoralisation may have been primarily fuelled not by the defeat itself but by internal rifts over the stimulus checks and widespread belief that the election had already been stolen from Trump (some Republicans presumably thought there was little value in voting in a rigged system).

A Republican Senate being guaranteed could easily have demotivated both sides but would give Democratic candidates more wiggle room in their runoff arguments. With 'stop the steal' not being relevant in this timeline, the stimulus arguments would have had greater political prominence and McConnell's position would have remained unpopular.