With leaners, it's Ernst +4%.
So all three polls today are showing Ernst outrunning Trump? SOYBEAN BUMP
The "soybean bump" was always overhyped but Monmouth doesn't show Ernst overperforming in terms of actual topline numbers, Emerson's quality is iffy and the one genuinely good poll (Siena/NYT with its typically high undecided %) doesn't counter all of the prior evidence suggesting Ernst is underperforming Trump. Could she be consolidating undecided voters? Very plausibly, yes, but the majority of other recent polls don't suggest this is happening just yet.
