Opinium/The Guardian: Biden +12%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/08/americans-racism-police-brutality-problems-poll

Sampling period: June 19-24, 2020

Full sample is of 2000 adults, but among those registered to vote who say they are certain to do so, the results are:

Biden 52%
Trump 40%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Details acquired by 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200708_National.xlsx

Sample size: 1215 registered voters who say they are certain to vote (listed as likely voters)

Biden 52%
Trump 40%
Some other candidate 3%
Don't know 4%

Beware the crosstabs, but here are results for lower-propensity voters (n.b. not everyone in the following subsamples is registered to vote):

FULL SAMPLE
Biden 48%
Trump 40%
Some other candidate 5%
Don't know 7%

PROBABLY WON'T VOTE
Biden 36%
Trump 17%
Some other candidate 32%
Don't know 14%

ON THE FENCE
Biden 33%
Trump 29%
Some other candidate 11%
Don't know 27%

PROBABLY WILL VOTE
Trump 43%
Biden 40%
Some other candidate 8%
Don't know 8%