2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

New candidates added to 'Red To Blue' program

Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50)
Nancy Goroff (NY-01)



Districts added to DCCC target list

NC-11 (OPEN, the Cawthorn one)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-06 (Wright)
TX-25 (Williams)

I think that makes it 10 GOP-held seats in Texas being targeted

What's the difference between the target list and Red to Blue?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1298743012504276994

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Originally posted in the MA-SEN thread:

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/RABAJewish-Insider-MA01-August-2020.pdf

MA-01 Democratic Primary
RABA Research/Jewish Insider
August 23-24, 2020
518 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Neal 49%
Morse 40%
Not sure 12%

It should be noted this poll has Kennedy over Markey by 7% in this district and that's not what I would expect assuming the statewide Markey leads are as high as recent polls suggest, although the Senate primary isn't going to break completely along traditional progressive/moderate lines so I can't be too sure.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1299454009510629376
https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1299454010924109824

25% of the statewide sample is voting for Trump, so I would assume the progressives are doing slightly better there, but Gravis' figures aren't too reliable anyway.

A shame they didn't also poll MA-08. We only have the one Goldstein internal.

Edit: I got the Trump claim wrong. They just didn't have a Republican crosstab.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

25% of the statewide sample is voting for Trump, so I would assume the progressives are doing slightly better there, but Gravis' figures aren't too reliable anyway.

A shame they didn't also poll MA-08. We only have the one Goldstein internal.

Edit: I got the Trump claim wrong. They just didn't have a Republican crosstab.

I thought they weren't actually asking every voter their preference in the Dem primary, but it seems they did, considering 50.9% of Dems and 51.4% of independents indicate support for Neal, yet the topline is 46% for Neal. Seems incompetent on Gravis' part, not that I expect better from them though.

It's possible that they're accounting for self-identifying Republicans who are registered as Democratic.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

25% of the statewide sample is voting for Trump, so I would assume the progressives are doing slightly better there, but Gravis' figures aren't too reliable anyway.

A shame they didn't also poll MA-08. We only have the one Goldstein internal.

Edit: I got the Trump claim wrong. They just didn't have a Republican crosstab.

I thought they weren't actually asking every voter their preference in the Dem primary, but it seems they did, considering 50.9% of Dems and 51.4% of independents indicate support for Neal, yet the topline is 46% for Neal. Seems incompetent on Gravis' part, not that I expect better from them though.

It's possible that they're accounting for self-identifying Republicans who are registered as Democratic.

Update: no. I don't know whether they've done so in the topline or the crosstabs, but either they've ed up this release somewhere or there are a LOT of non-binary folk in MA-01 (who didn't get their own crosstab despite being so numerous):

https://twitter.com/iabvek/status/1299464111957241857

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

An update from the person who released this poll:

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1299466197264666624
My guess is that means pre-weights crosstabs, post-weights topline. UGH

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1300033046549274624

Dana Balter internal
MoE: 4.4%

https://auburnpub.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/balter-vs-katko-new-polls-tell-different-stories-about-cny-race-for-congress/article_eee30c11-f4a2-541c-8d95-d583078292c3.html

Also in this release:

Public Opinion Strategies/Republican internal
August 12-15, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Katko 51%
Balter 40%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MA-04 D primary poll!

https://jewishinsider.com/2020/08/auchincloss-and-mermell-are-neck-and-neck-in-new-massachusetts-4th-poll/
RABA Research/Jewish Insider
August 27-28, 2020
497 likely voters
MoE: 4.39%

Auchincloss 23%
Mermell 22%
Grossman 15%
Leckey 11%
Khazei 8%
Linos 7%
Someone else 3%
Sigel 1%
Undecided 10%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-03

https://www.scribd.com/document/474218355/Tom-Suozzi-Toplines-2020-pdf

Douma Research/Tom Suozzi internal (D)
August 1-2, 2020
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Suozzi 50%
George Santos 39%
Undecided 11%

Generic D 46%
Generic R 41%
Undecided 13%

EDIT: Republican internal, not Democratic.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-03

https://www.scribd.com/document/474218355/Tom-Suozzi-Toplines-2020-pdf

Douma Research/Tom Suozzi internal (D)
August 1-2, 2020
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Suozzi 50%
George Santos 39%
Undecided 11%

Generic D 46%
Generic R 41%
Undecided 13%

Joe biden up by 8 btw.

I posted presidential numbers in the relevant subforum, but it turns out this is an R internal anyway.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL-13 poll
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_CD13GEN_August30_L5V0S.pdf

St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
August 29-30, 2020
2160 likely voters
MoE: 2.1%

Crist 55%
Luna 39%
Undecided 7%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

WA-10

http://stricklandforwashington.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GQRSurveyMemoGeneral1.pdf

GQR Research/Strickland for Washington (Strickland internal)
August 24-28, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Strickland 43%
Doglio 22%
Undecided 35%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MT-01

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/MT-AL-poll-083120.pdf

Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC (D)
August 22-27, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

With leaners:
Williams 51%
Rosendale 48%
Don't know 1%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

RV
Democratic 48% (-1)
Republican 45% (nc)

High turnout
Democratic 48%
Republican 46%

Low turnout
Democratic 48%
Republican 47%

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_pa_090220.pdf/

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_090220/

August 28-31, 2020
400 registered voters (400 voters accounted for in each likely voter model)
MoE: 4.9%

Changes with July 9-13 poll.

For registered voters, more details were supplied:

Other candidate 1% (n/c)
No one 1% (was previously <1%)
Undecided 5% (n/c)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

This is what makes me believe the poll is junk. There's no way Republicans are winning those seats by 10%.

It is a subsample. Crosstabs will usually be a bit rum.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So there's a scenario where Biden loses they way Hillary does but Pelosi still holds the house.

This scenario occurs in most of the narrow Trump wins where he's only ahead thanks to 1 or 2 states, IMO.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Holy sh*t... $6 million for Cal in North Carolina in three days. Insane.

And $3 million in Alaska I can only assume is enough to buy all ad slots from now until election day.

AK isn't as cheap as its small population would suggest. The geography, in particular that of the media markets, probably makes it pricier than the likes of KS/IA/ME/MT.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1313440078350495745

Since when is Tarantino a Republican?

It's a meme based on the camera angles

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1314273845252104194?s=20
https://twitter.com/BenJKest/status/1314323590951641094?s=20

Grifters gonna grift

As overhyped as they are, these are the sorts of candidates who'd have been in tipping point contests if the GOP House Majority was to be taken back. As with Trump's 2016 campaign targeting the rust belt instead of just playing defence, there was a firm rationale to supporting those kind of longshots.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Campa-Najjar in 2018: Medicare for All is a moral imperative. Trust me, I'm progressive.
Campa-Najjar in 2019: Medicare for All isn't practical. I will now don my moderate outfit!
Campa-Najjar in 2020:

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1316040958438408192

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

On the other issue regarding Pete DeFazio, if he is re-elected, which I think is still most likely, he really needs to retire.  He was first elected to the U.S House in 1986.

He's only 73 and his constituents seem to like him more than the average Democrat.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And I'll say again, these people have learned nothing. Even selzer was five points off in 2018
NC should be lean D at this point too by that logic. And unlike Ernst, Tillis hasn't gotten 50 in a single poll

NC should be lean D and I'm keeping IASEN at tilt D for now, but for perspective:

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1318579488398036993
I don't expect Selzer to be consistently wrong; at least, probably not to that extent. They did not overestimate either candidate's final numbers but just did not factor in the undecided voters' Republican lean.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1319640776435957760

Good news. Biden seems more committed than certain moderate heroes to showing unity and hopefully they follow his lead.