2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Florida Atlantic University poll of initiatives:

https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-holds-florida-edge.php

October 24-25
937 likely voters
MoE: 3.1%
Margins calculated pre-rounding

Minimum wage: Support +32%
Support 62%
Oppose 30%
Unsure 8%

California-style primaries: Support +30%
Support 58%
No 29%
Unsure 13%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of Mississippi:

October 23-26
507 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%

Replace the requirement that a candidate for governor or state office receive the highest number of votes in a majority of the state's 122 House districts with a runoff system (if no candidate gets 50% of the vote statewide, the election goes to a runoff)
Yes 54%
No 25%
Unsure 21%

New state flag adoption referendum
Yes 61%
No 31%
Unsure 8%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Patinkin Research Strategies polled Arizona's Prop. 208 to provide more education funding with a tax on the highest earners:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1g6Ib0jZws3rW63PNt0BBr7bOkK9brpZQ/view

October 1-3
604 likely voters
MoE: 3.8%

Yes 55%
No 37%
Undecided 9%

October 21-24
729 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%

Yes 55% (n/c)
No 40% (+3)
Undecided 5% (-4)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

San Diego Democrat v.s. Democrat mayoral poll from FM3 Research for the Voice of San Diego:

https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/politics/voice-poll-reveals-tight-mayoral-race-messy-post-gop-future-for-dems/

October 8-22
580 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Gloria 36%
Bry 32%
Don't know/no answer 32%

San Diego County Supervisor District 3 election (same pollster):
https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/320-919-XTAB-SUP-3-San-Diego-Fall-2020-Issues-Survey-Updated.pdf

October 8-22
430 likely voters
MoE: 4.8%

Lawson-Remer (D) 42%
Gaspar (R-inc/) 31%
Don't know/no answer 27%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/13DanKennedy/status/1321390642799529984

Changes with September 9-21:

Yes 54% (+6)
No 24% (-4)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/13DanKennedy/status/1321390642799529984

Changes with September 9-21:

Yes 54% (+6)
No 24% (-4)

Fuller release: https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2020-10-28.html

October 15-27
908 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Undecided 22% (-2) (they group in refused with this)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ipsos/Spectrum news poll of the vehicle regulation measure in MA (I missed this one the first time around):

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_massachusetts_topline_102120_0.pdf

The initiative would require all cars manufactured in 2022 or after to have mechanical data transmitted directly to the manufacturer. This data would be available on a public platform to both owners and independent repair facilities.

October 7-15
1001 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Support 58%
Oppose 22%
Don't know 20%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

University of Arkansas initiative polls:

https://news.uark.edu/articles/55124/arkansas-poll-finds-more-than-60-percent-support-for-trump-cotton

October 9-21
405 very likely voters
MoE: 4.8% for very likely voters
"Don't know"/"refused" respondents excluded.

Issue 1 - continue 0.5% sales tax spend on roads and highways set to expire in 2023
Favour 62%
Oppose 38%

Issue 2 - tighten term limits for state legislators
Favour 60%
Oppose 40%

Issue 3 - make it harder to pass ballot measures
Oppose 59%
Favour 41%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

City of San Diego, CA - FM3 Research/Voice of San Diego
Oct. 8-22, 580 LV, MoE: 4.1%

Mayor
Gloria 36%
Bry 32%
Don’t know 32%

County Supervisorial District 3
Lawson-Remer 43%
Gaspar 32%
Don’t know 26%

https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/320-919-WT-CITY-San-Diego-Fall-2020-Issues-Survey.pdf

That’s been posted upthread.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MSU Billings polled Montana ballot initiatives:

https://www.msubillings.edu/class/nams/polls/2020-mountain-states-poll-report.pdf
Oct. 19-24, 546 LV, MoE: 4.2

I-90 - legalise recreational marijuana
Yes 54%
No 38%
Undecided 7%

LR-130 - remove the authority of cities and counties to regulate firearms, including concealed carry laws

No 52%
Yes (to removing the authority) 36%
Undecided 12%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14k1Rtcxamdn-4xUFAPpIcTAzAaRHala0wAAlnEUJy5E/edit#gid=0

NJ Rutgers-Eagleton poll:

October 19-24
MoE: 4%

Making peacetime veterans able to receive a property tax deduction already available to wartime veterans

864 likely voters
For 78%
Against 16%
Don't know 6%

Delaying the state legislative redistricting process and use of new districts if census data is received after February

858 likely voters
For 46%
Against 32%
Don't know 22%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Monmouth poll of FL: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_fl_102920.pdf/

October 24-28
509 registered voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 10-13

$15 minimum wage
For 63% (-4)
Against 32% (+6)
Will not vote on this 2% (+1)
Don't know 4% (-2)

California-style primaries
For 53% (-10)
Against 30% (+9)
Will not vote on this 2% (+1)
Don't know 15% (n/c)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No clue if the jungle primaries thing is gonna pass in FL half the polls have it failing by 20 points and the other half have it passing by 20 points

It needs to clear a 60% threshold to pass. I suspect it'll just miss that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Roanoke College poll of VA's redistricting amendment:

https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20Oct31.2020%20Political%20topline.pdf

Oct 23-29, 802 LV, MoE: 3.5%

Support 48%
Oppose 26%
Refused 3%
Unsure 24%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout poll of the election reform amendment (further tighten lobbying rules in exchange for reversing the anti-gerrymandering part of the 2018 amendment:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5f9d55cbe9a0e4631ae6f106/1604146650952/MOSCOUT+Statewide+General+Election+103020.pptx

Oct 28-29
1010 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Changes with Oct 14-15

No 56% (+6)
Yes 29% (+1)
Not sure 15% (-7)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

St. Pete Polls survey of Florida amendments: https://www.scribd.com/document/482346466/StPetePolls-2020-State-President-October30-F6JZP

Oct 29-30, 2758 LV, MoE: 1.9%

Amendment 2 - minimum wage, Changes with Sep 21-22
Yes 58% (-7)
No 35% (+12)
Undecided/won't say 8% (-5)

Amendment 3 - California-style primaries, Changes with Oct 21-22
No 48% (+4)
Yes 40% (+2)
Undecided/won't say 12% (-7)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Colorado Poll:

https://coloradosun.com/2020/11/01/new-poll-colorado-biden-trump-hickenlooper-gardner/

Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun
Oct 29 - Nov 1
Of 502 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Oct 8-13

Ban abortion except in case of danger to the mother's life after 22 weeks referendum:

Against 56%
For 38%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Nielson Brothers polling of SD:

https://www.southdacola.com/blog/2020/11/survey-nielson-brothers-polling-nbp-statewide-survey-october-24-28-2020/

Oct 24-28, 447 likely voters, MoE: 4.63%

Constitutional Amendment B authorizes the Legislature to allow sports wagering in Deadwood. How do you plan to vote?

For 43%
Against 38%
Unsure 19%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A poll of (FL) St. Petersburg's nonpartisan mayoral election this August from InsiderAdvantage for Fox 13:

https://www.fox13news.com/news/fox-13-poll-shows-ken-welch-is-tenuous-frontrunner-in-st-pete-mayoral-race

January 31
400 registered voters
MoE: 4.2%

Ken Welch (D): 12%
Wengay Newton (D): 8%
Darden Rice (D): 7%
Robert Blackmon (R): 6%
Deveron Gibbons (R): 0%
Undecided: 67%

Blackmon and Gibbons are hypothetical candidates.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/429534-darden-rice-ken-welch-neck-and-neck-in-new-poll-but-st-pete-mayoral-race-still-wide-open/

St Petersburg, FL. mayor
St. Pete Polls
May 13
527 likely voters
MoE: 4.3
Changes with March 2

Unsure 40% (-2)
Darden Rice 16% (+1)
Ken Welch 16% (+1)
Wengay Newton 12% (-2)
Levinson 5% (+2)
Paul Congemi 4% (-1)
Michael Ingram 3% (n/c)
Vincent Nowicki 3% (+1)
Marcile Powers 2% (n/c)

Rice vs Welch
Unsure 45% (-1)
Welch 31% (n/c)
Rice 24% (+1)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL medicaid expansion polls:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article248966779.html

The Tyson Group/Florida Voices for Health (in favour of expansion)

Statewide, 600 registered voters
MoE: 4%
76% for
13% against

Miami-Dade county, 100 Republican primary voters
MoE: 9%
69% for
25% against

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/421919-poll-shows-strong-support-among-floridians-for-medicaid-expansion/

PPP/Protect Our Care Florida (for the expansion)

Regarding the referendum:
April 5-6
634 voters
MoE: 3.9%

Favour: 54%
"Firm opposition": 29%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cleveland mayor poll

https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-research-institute/Cleveland%20resident%20survey%20report_final.pdf

Baldwin Wallace Unviersity
March 15-April 22
421 adults
MoE: 5%

Unsure 48%
Dennis Kucinich 18%
Basheer Jones 13%
Zach Reed 9%
Sandra Williams 7%
Kevin Kelley 6%
Blaine Griffin 5%
Justin Bibb 5%
Dick Knoth 2%
Ross DiBello 1%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For the election just gone:

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1382452912685682689

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Detroit City Council primary (for both of the two seats up for election this year), August 3

https://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/27403/coleman_a_young_ii_leads_in_poll_for_detroit_city_council_at-large_seat

Target Insyght/Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus
Released February 22
400 "active" Detroit voters
MoE: 4%

Undecided 26%
Coleman A. Young II 25%
Andre Spivey 18%
Janee Ayers 13%
Art Blackwell 8%
LaTanya Garrett 7%
Nicole Small 4%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jacksonville, FL 2023 mayoral election (primary) poll:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/

University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab
May 11-16
1263 registered voters

Donna Deegan (D) 19%
Matt Carlucci (R) 18%
Alvin Brown (D) 14%
Daniel Davis (R) 6%
Joyce Morgan (D) 5%
Al Ferraro (R) 3%
LeAnna Cumber (R) 3%