2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread (user search)
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  2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread  (Read 60426 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2020, 07:22:14 PM »
Emerson polled the minimum wage initiative in Florida. It needs 60% to pass.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/florida-2020-biden-holds-slight-edge-three-weeks-out

October 10-12
690 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

For 52%
Against 31%
Unsure 11%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2020, 08:16:26 PM »
SurveyUSA polled Referendum 90 for KING-TV in Washington:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=544b4e4e-7820-4e83-b51a-41423dda3b8a

October 8-12
591 likely voters
MoE: 5.2%

Approve 52%
Reject 34%
Undecided 14%

It would ensure that public schools provide sexual health education to all students.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #27 on: October 13, 2020, 05:29:40 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2020, 05:38:12 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Two polls of the mayoral race in Richmond, VA (the incumbent won 35.64%-33.56% in 2016):

https://thevirginiastar.com/2020/10/05/new-poll-suggests-richmond-mayors-race-is-between-stoney-and-gray/

ARG/"anonymous party"
September 23-27
540 registered voters
MoE: 4.5%
Changes with July 16-21 independent poll

Stoney (D-inc.) 37% (-1)
Gray (D) 33% (+2)
Rodgers (D) 13% (-3)
Griffin (I) 11% (n/c)
McLean (D) 3%
Undecided 2%

https://thevirginiastar.com/2020/10/13/latest-poll-gray-drops-to-16-percent-stoney-stays-stable/

Christopher Newport University

Stoney (D-inc.) 36%
Gray (D) 16%
Rodgers (D) 15%
Griffin (I) 3%
McLean (D) 1%
Undecided 30%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #28 on: October 13, 2020, 09:43:36 AM »
Missouri ballot initiatives:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/8k0pvsrbbzcy8p6/slu-poll-october2020-toplineresults.pdf?dl=0

YouGov/SLU
September 24 - October 7
931 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

Amendment 1: extend the two-term limit for Governor and Treasurer to LTGOV, SoS, Auditor and AG.

For 51%
Against 29%
Not sure 20%

Amendment 3: tighten campaign contribution/gifts and lobbyist laws in exchange for reversing 2018's anti-gerrymandering amendment (the actual text is written a bit deceptively so voters are still told the commission will be 'nonpartisan' although control will be returned to the Governor)

Against 43%
For 35%
Not sure 23%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #29 on: October 13, 2020, 12:04:23 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2020, 12:09:36 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
TX HD-138 poll:

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/787e36cb680a02a01877c130b9f42f63/TX%20HD%20138%20Memo%20Oct%2020.pdf

PPP/THDCC (D)
October 6-7
451 voters
MoE: 4.6%

With leaners (est.):
Bacy (D) 54%
Hull (R) 45%
Undecided 1%

Generic D 52%
Generic R 43%

Bohac (R) won 50.03%-49.93% in 2018.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #30 on: October 13, 2020, 04:46:28 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2020, 05:00:20 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Some mayoral polls:

Baltimore
https://www.wypr.org/post/nearly-two-thirds-voters-favor-scott-baltimore-mayor-finds-poll-commissioned-his-campaign

GSG/Brandon Scott (D) internal
september 4-6
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Scott (D) 65%
Wallace (I) 14%
Wright (R) 6%
Undecided/refused 16%

Honolulu
https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/10/civil-beat-hnn-poll-blangiardi-holds-commanding-lead-in-mayors-race/

Civil Beat/Hawaii News Now
October 2-7
699 registered voters
MoE: 3.7%

Blangiardi 48%
Amemiya 28%
Undecided 19%
Do not prefer either candidate 5%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #31 on: October 14, 2020, 12:10:42 PM »
San Juan, PR Mayoral poll:

https://www.elvocero.com/politica/con-la-preferencia-del-voto-miguel-romero/article_8bcd335e-0d07-11eb-9eab-bb4718180b7e.html

Gaither International/El Vocero
October 1-7
500 voters
MoE: 4%

Miguel Romero (PNP) 38%
Manuel Natal (MVC) 18%
Rossana Lopez (PPD) 17%
Adrian Gonzalez (PIP) 2%
Nelson Rosario (PD) 1%
Not sure 24%

Carmen Yulin Cruz (PPD-D) won the 2016 race, 52.54%-43.77% over the PNP candidate.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #32 on: October 15, 2020, 07:52:57 AM »
Civiqs/DailyKos:
October 11-14

CO
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_CO_banner_book_2020_10_mk0d15.pdf

1013 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%

Join National Popular Vote compact amendment
Yes 47%
No 45%
Unsure 8%

Ban abortions after 22 weeks except in cases of threat to mother's life amendment
No 51%
Yes 42%
Unsure 7%

Decrease state income tax rate from 4.63% to 4.55%
Yes 51%
No 35%
Unsure 14%

VA
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_VA_banner_book_2020_10_48z9k2.pdf

1231 likely voters
MoE: 3.1%

Anti-gerrymandering initiative
Yes 48%
No 30%
Undecided 22%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2020, 08:54:08 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 18, 2020, 05:18:28 AM
Honolulu, HI mayoral poll
Mason-Dixon
Oct 12-14, 625 RV, MoE: 4%

Blangiardi 49%
Amemiya 36%
Undecided 15%

Mayor Caldwell COVID approval: 38/49 (-11)

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/10/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-poll-shows-commanding-lead-for-blangiardi-in-mayors-race/

This article also referenced a Solutions Pacific internal for Amemiya:

September 28-October 9
1212 registered voters who said they would vote

Blangiardi 37%
Amemiya 36%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #34 on: October 19, 2020, 12:25:17 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2020, 01:26:10 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
YouGov/American Politics Research Lab at the University of Colorado poll:

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2020_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-19-20_.pdf

October 5-9
800 likely voters
MoE: 4.64% for likely voters

Prop 113- Join NPV Compact
Yes 49%
No 34%
Not sure 17%

Pro 115 - Abortion Restriction
No 45%
Yes 41%
Not sure 14%

Prop 118 - paid family/medical leave (only for specific persons)
Yes 65%
No 22%
Not sure 13%

Amendment B - repeal Gallagher amendment/property tax reform
Sub-groups with different ballot language:

Group A - simple description
Yes 24%
No 23%
Not sure 53%

Group B - official ballot measure wording
Yes 44%
No 20%
Not sure 36%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #35 on: October 20, 2020, 08:39:55 AM »
October 12-15
900 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #36 on: October 20, 2020, 02:07:41 PM »
Cook County State's Attorney poll (R):

https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2020/10/19/21523370/states-attorney-battle-foxx-republican-democrat-obrien-poll-trump-cook-county

Commissioned by the Cook County GOP
October 18
473 likely voters
MoE: 3.69%

Foxx +7% pre-rounding.

Foxx (D) 47%
O'Brien (R) 41%

Foxx won 72.06%-27.94% in 2016.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #37 on: October 21, 2020, 07:47:04 AM »
Civiqs/Daily Kos:

October 17-20

FL
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_FL_banner_book_2020_10_6s25ck.pdf

863 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Explicitly codify citizenship requirement for voting into state constitution amendment
Yes 53%
No 39%
Unsure 9%

$15 minimum wage initiative amendment
Yes 57%
No 38%
Unsure 4%

California-style primaries amendment
No 51%
Yes 36%
Unsure 13%

NV
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_NV_banner_book_2020_10_r8597h.pdf

712 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%

Marriage amendment - amends state constitution to recognise gay marriage and also allows religious officials to refuse to solemnise a marriage
Yes 69%
No 26%
Unsure 5%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #38 on: October 21, 2020, 10:42:40 PM »
Oklahoma:

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f90b311788f4939f00759e5/news-9news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-inhofe-leads-broyles-by-20-points-in-us-senate-race

OK Sooner/News 9/News on 6
Oct 15-20, 5466 LV, MoE: 1.33%

State Question 805 - prevent using past non-violent felony convictions to "enhance" sentences for other non-violent felony convictions; retroactively modify sentences for individuals serving sentences enhanced in this way

Support +10% pre-rounding

Support 45%
Oppose  35%
Undecided 20%

State Question 814 - reappropriate most funds generated by tobacco settlements and currently directed to preventing smoking towards funding the state's Medicaid program (and consequently securing federal matching funds for the program)

Support +20% pre-rounding

Support 46%
Oppose 26%
Undecided 28%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #39 on: October 22, 2020, 03:43:49 AM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 22, 2020, 02:17:08 AM
CA (PPIC)
Oct 9-18, 1185 LV, MoE: 4.3%

Proposition 15: “It taxes commercial and industrial property based on current market value, instead of purchase price. The fiscal impact is increased property taxes on commercial properties worth more than $3 million providing $6.5 billion to $11.5 billion in new funding to local governments and schools.“

Yes 49%
No 45%
Don’t know 6%

Proposition 16: Restore affirmative action.

No 50%
Yes 37%
Don’t know 13%

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2020.pdf


Changes with September 4-13

Prop 15
Yes 49% (-2)
No 45% (+5)
Don't know 6% (-3)

Prop 16
No 50% (+3)
Yes 37% (+6)
Don't know 13% (-9)
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #40 on: October 23, 2020, 06:56:15 AM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 06:50:46 AM
FL - St. Pete’s Polls
Oct 21-22, 2527 LV, MoE: 2%

Quote
This model ended up favoring Republicans by about 1% more than our statewide polls for the last several months.

Amendment 3: California-style primaries
Yes 37% (-9)
No 44% (+13)
Undecided/won’t say 19% (-6 from "Undecided")

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_October21_U5GHV.pdf

Changes with September 1-2 added above
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #41 on: October 24, 2020, 12:48:38 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2020, 09:56:05 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout poll of amendment 3 (which strengthens campaign finance laws a bit but also indirectly reverses the anti-gerrymandering amendment passed in 2018):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201017_MO_Remington.pdf

October 14-15
MoE: 3%
1010 likely voters
Changes with September 20-21 poll

OPPOSE 50% (+20)
SUPPORT 28% (-16)
Undecided 22% (-4)

Edit: updated with a more recent previous poll
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #42 on: October 24, 2020, 01:19:06 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 24, 2020, 10:24:41 AM
CA - Spectrum News/Ipsos
Oct 7-15, 1400 adults, MoE: 3%

Prop 15: Property tax measure
Support 55%
Oppose 29%
Don’t know 16%

Prop 16: Restore affirmative action in California
Support 38%
Oppose 28%
Don’t know 34%

Prop 20: Expanding the list of violent crimes for which early release from prison is not an option
Support 59%
Oppose 25%
Don’t know 16%

Prop 21: Changing zoning laws to allow for duplexes and triplexes to be built in neighborhoods previously zoned for single-family homes
Support 43%
Oppose 36%
Don’t know 21%

Prop 22: Exempt gig companies like Uber from AB 5
Support 62%
Oppose 23%
Don’t know 15%

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_california_topline_102120_0.pdf

There's one more. The prop. 20 question was split into two parts, for which you've posted the first. The second is regarding charging repeat theft as a felony:

Support 61%
Oppose 24%
Don't know 15%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #43 on: October 25, 2020, 04:23:53 AM »
Missouri SD-01 poll (a bit old, but the last that seems to be available in this series at the moment):

https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2020/9/12/moscout-weekender-senate-1-poll-brown-winds-down-pelopidas-hallway-on-pq-wwtw-and-more

Remington Research Group/MOScout
September 9-10
648 likely voters
MoE: 3.8

Beck (D-inc.) 43%
Lenihan (R) 36%
Undecided 21%

Sifton (D) won 53.09%-46.91% in 2016.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #44 on: October 26, 2020, 06:07:06 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 06:13:37 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Changes with September 9-15

Quote from: VARepublican on October 26, 2020, 05:42:18 AM
CA - UC Berkeley
Oct 16-21, 5352 LV

Prop 15: Property tax measure

Support 49% (n/c)
Oppose 42% (+8)
Undecided 9% (-8)

Prop 16: Restore affirmative action in California

Oppose 49% (+8)
Support 38% (+5)
Undecided 13% (-13)

Prop 21: Changing zoning laws to allow for duplexes and triplexes to be built in neighborhoods previously zoned for single-family homes
Oppose 48% (+11)
Support 37% (+n/c)
Undecided 15% (-11)

Prop 22: Exempt gig companies like Uber from AB 5
Support 46% (+7)
Oppose 42% (+6)
Undecided 12% (-13)

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-26/berkeley-poll-california-prop-22-15-races-tighten-november-2020-election


Prop. 21 is the rent control measure, not the zoning laws one.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #45 on: October 26, 2020, 08:17:31 AM »
San Juan Mayor poll:

https://www.puertorico-herald.org/issues2/2020/vol18n06/Mid%20Oct%202020%20Tracking%20%20-%20Final%20Topline.pdf

October 13-15
258 registered voters

Romero (PNP) 37%
Lopez Leon (PPD) 26%
Natal (MVC) 10%
Gonzalez Costa (PIP) 2%
Someone else 2%
Rosario (PD) 1%
Not sure/refused 23%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #46 on: October 26, 2020, 09:26:52 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 09:45:31 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
One of Washington's ballot measures:

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2020/10/voters-likely-to-sustain-states-new-sex-ed-law-by-approving-referendum-90-npi-poll-finds.html

October 14-15
610 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Requiring public schools to teach sex ed. including affirmative consent:

Support 67%
Oppose 22%
Not sure 11%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #47 on: October 26, 2020, 02:21:52 PM »
UMass Amherst polls of the ballot measures:

https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/GeneralElectionToplines.pdf

October 14-21
713 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for 725 registered voters

"Require that motor vehicle owners and independent repair facilities be provided with expanded access to mechanical data related to vehicle maintenance and repair."

Yes 75%
No 15%
Not sure 11%

RCV

Yes 48%
No 43%
Not sure 9%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #48 on: October 26, 2020, 02:23:05 PM »
Ipsos/Spectrum news poll of the RCV measure in MA:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_massachusetts_topline_102120_0.pdf

October 7-15
1001 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Support 45%
Oppose 34%
Don't know 21%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,784
« Reply #49 on: October 26, 2020, 02:30:24 PM »
Ipsos/Spectrum News poll of Florida:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_florida_topline_102120_1.pdf

October 7-15
1800 adults
MoE: 2.6%

$15 Minimum wage
Agree 70%
Disagree 21%
Don't know 9%
Logged
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