Beware the long post.
Over 190,000 people have early voted in Virginia, which is 56% of its final 2018 EV total. 3.2% is the total statewide turnout rate with four weeks left until election day.
Core Biden counties (netted >20,000 votes)
Fairfax - 23% of 2018 final early vote, 2.3% turnout
Arlington - 15% of 2018, 1.8% turnout
Richmond - 62% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Prince William - 44% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Loudoun - 40% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Henrico - 72% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Alexandria - 32% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Norfolk - 73% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Hampton - 96% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Newport News - 100% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Albemarle - 70% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Portsmouth - 88% of 2018, 2.6% turnout
Charlottesville - 50% of 2018, 3.9% turnout
Chesterfield - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Virginia Beach - 75% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Roanoke City - 94% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Petersburg - 56% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Looks like DC area is really slacking so far(actually comparable to SW VA) while Hampton Roads are turning out early. Looks like this is a consequence of partisan white Ds relying on mail, black voters prefer in-person?
Core Trump counties (netted >10,000 votes in);
Bedford - 74% of 2018 final early vote, 2.9% turnout
Augusta - 108% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Hanover - 94% of 2018, 4% turnout
Rockingham - 89% of 2018, 3% turnout
Washington - 82% of 2018, 3.7% turnout
Pittsylvania - 69% of 2018, 2.2% turnout
Tazewell - 87% of 2018, 2.8% turnout
Frederick - 69% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Campbell - 79% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Franklin - 80% of 2018, 3% turnout
Roanoke County - 57% of 2018, 2.5% turnout
Wise - 47% of 2018, 1.5% turnout
Similar to 2021, the Shenandoah valley/greater Richmond sees the largest increase in turnout vs previous elections. Southside and SW VA are the weak links here as to be expected, but Republican areas overall are banking votes at a similar pace.
Other notables:
Stafford(Quantico area) - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Emporia(largely black southside town) - 87% of 2018, 1.7% turnout
Lynchburg(Liberty U.) - 120% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Fauquier(reddish DC exurbs) - 68% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Radford(19 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 100% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Buchanan(2 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 33% of 2018, 1.2% turnout
Still early, but a few signs point to a red-tinged or red-leaning environment. Swing and GOP areas are banking votes, Dem areas are a land of contrast right now. Gut feeling + looking at other counties says Luria is a goner, Spanberger has some issues, Wexton seems fine?
