Need to add the 2020 numbers to this thread now to extrapolate trends.
NC: 2,758K R to 2,684 D
GA: 2,473 D 2,461 R
2016-2020
GA R: +373k
GA D: +596k
Net: D +223k
Raw R margin: 211k -> -12k, resulting in a flip.
Georgia had a smaller raw R increase and a larger raw D increase then NC. Georgia Republicans just couldn't keep up and it reflects on the nature of growth in the state(deep blue Atlanta and its diverse suburbs). 62.5% of the increase in two party votes 16-20 went to Democrats. Though a 12k vote deficit seems easy to remedy in the short term, Ds netting over 200k votes in four years is still nothing to sneeze at, or pretend can be easily reverted in another four years. Lean blue, if not a tossup, for 2024.
NC R: +396k
NC D: +495k
Net: D +99k
Raw R margin: 173k -> 74k
Compared to Georgia, NC Rs are somewhat keeping pace and of course have netted votes to flip the state since 2008. Republicans received 44.4% of the increase in two party votes 16-20, but 53.8% of the increase since 2008, so you may consider trends to be a wash in this state vs the clearly one-sided trends in GA. Blue collar white trends, the Lumbee, rural black flight, exurbs and retiree growth complicate strong D gains. Stubbornly close but lean red for the time being, not unlike Florida.
