RRusso1982
Rookie
Posts: 207
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« on: December 30, 2011, 02:13:59 PM » |
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I live in the 5th Congressional District of New Jersey. Back in 2002, when Garrett was first elected after nearly knocking off Marge Roukema twice in the Republican primary, I predicted right. I said that Garrett would never get the 70% or better Roukema would routinely get, but the 5th is too Republican to elect a Democrat. Garrett's lowest vote share ever was 55% in 2006. He now goes from an R+7 to an R+4 district. I would say Garrett should still be OK most years, but in the next 2006 type Democratic wave election, the Democrats could really smell blood in the water. After all, R+4 were exactly the type of districts the Republicans were losing in 2006. If Garrett is ever defeated in the GOP primary by someone from Bergen County, like David Russo or Kathy Donovan, the district will be much safer.
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