Trump continues to hover around 12%-13% on their model. I would have thought that it would have started to drop by now, given that early voting is surging and time is running out.
He has improved by maybe a point this past week so the forecast is steady.
What good does one point do when he's behind by almost ten points nationally though?
I don't think 538 should try and speculate who is winning based on the early vote, but the fact that it is happening is significant, because it underscores how little time remains for Trump. Since they factor in weird things like newspaper headlines, you'd think they'd factor this in too.
