2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Nhoj]

The WI Supreme court invalidating the WI maps under state law would be the NC SCOTUS case on steroids. There is nothing in state law on redistricting other than districts must be contiguous and compact. Zip. Nada.

The WI state constitution doesn’t even really have much of an equal protection clause. It merely states that, “All people are born equally free and independent, and have certain inherent rights; among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness; to secure these rights, governments are instituted, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.”

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=does+the+wisconsin+state+constitutuion+have+an+equal+protection+clause

Here is some legal chatter on the WI redistricting law, or lack thereof:

“Jeff Mandell, board president of the liberal group Law Forward and attorney at Stafford Rosenbaum in Madison, believes there are several areas of the state constitution that could be grounds for a challenge.

"There is no hard and fast plan," he said. "There is no complaint or document that is written. But there are plenty of conversations going on about what such a lawsuit would look like."
A challenge could be based on the state constitution's redistricting provisions, he said, but also on other areas related to voting.

"You could also imagine claims that maybe it violates that right to vote," he said. "Is the right to vote merely the right to stand on a line on Election Day and cast a ballot? Or is it a right to cast a meaningful ballot?"

Rick Esenberg, president of the conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, says that even if a map challenge were to be brought before the state Supreme Court, he doubts a violation of the Wisconsin Constitution could be proven.

"The problem is that there really isn't anything in the Wisconsin Constitution, other than a requirement that the maps be contiguous and compact," he said. "And the thing about the maps in Wisconsin is that they are contiguous and compact."



https://www.wpr.org/wisconsin-supreme-court-april-race-state-legislature-redistricting-maps



If the WI high court redraws the maps based on the efficiency gap theory or whatever other theory it embraces, SCOTUS will bounce it. Roberts will write the opinion.

The Dems may well take over the House due to the abortion issue and Pub fecklessness in general, but the road to control will not be through Wisconsin.  It’s a dry hole.

We shall see. Anyone want to bet the other way?  

Maybe for the Congressional map, but there would be no grounds for the Federal Supreme Court to interfere itself on issues related to the Wisconsin Constitution, how the Wisconsin Supreme Court interprets said Constitution or state level maps. It would be a complete overstepping of their authority, which means they'll probably do it.

There also isn't really any reason Dems would need to overturn the Congressional Map, seeing as it is the map Evers made to comply with the previous court. Both WI-3 and 1 are winnable in the right circumstances.

[Nhoj]

Are Dems waiting to file a lawsuit over these maps for 2024?

I’m legit not sure a lawsuit is going to be filed for the congressional map. Unless they are waiting for a result on the state maps first.

I mean the current Map is the one Evers submitted under the previous courts rules, unlike the legislative maps.  Wi-03 of course was drawn to pack as many college towns with ron kind in 2010 and as we saw last year was still competitive with the new min change map and trump 2020 vote. Wi-01 also seems like it could end up competitive this decade if not next cycle.   So all things considered it's not really something urgent for dems to file a lawsuit for.

[Nhoj]

Yay, *finally*.

While geography definitely favors Rs, I don't think the geography bias is as bad at the State Legislature level because smaller cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Appleton, and Green Bay can sustain D-leaning seats on their own. Dems will honestly probably gain most of their seats on the redrawn fair map out of these sorts of places.

The Congressional level, 8 seats is just an unfortunate number for Dems since both metro Madison and Milwaukee Dem sinks are sort of "natural" seats, and there aren't large enough D cities outside of those to sustain other D leaning CDs.

I can be a broken record on this but Milwaukee being a “natural” Dem pack is the result of conservative housing discrimination which created a ghetto, and that this minimizing the political power of the residents was a deliberate goal, not a regrettable natural phenomenon.

Yes this is correct and Dane is really not a pack at all, its one of the few places in this country where Rural parts of the county Vote D and even surrounding counties are more competitive places than elsewhere.  Cracking Dane to create another seat is only taboo aesthetically [Ironically our D WI posters seem to be the most uncomfortable with it] But realistically madison isnt the same city it was  10-15 years ago anymore the closed culture of it is well and gone.