Biden campaign youth director: Youth numbers are looking similar to 2012

[DaleCooper]

Cool, release the numbers then

I hope the campaign does a similar thing they did in 2020 where they did an inside look at what their internal polling looked like in all the swing states (and it was much closer than most of the public polling IIRC), i wish I could find it online. They literally had a map up with what each state had at the time

Yeah, the Biden 2020 campaign for all of its faults was not the Hillary campaign. They knew Michigan was close at the very end and I believe they knew long before election day that Maine's Senate seat was a lost cause even though no public polling indicated either.

[DaleCooper]

At this point in 2012, most national polls had Obama well ahead with young voters. It's hard to dig up crosstabs for ancient polls, but none were having Romney ahead as far as I can tell.

This is an extension of a myth that tries to liken Biden 2024 to Obama 2012 despite them being very different. The simple fact is that, outside of a few brief weeks, Obama led Romney by a few points in the average at all times and had a EC advantage. Obama was never losing the tipping point state in 2012, much less by close to the 5 point deficit Biden has faced. Obama was better liked than Romney. He didn't have widespread doubts of basic competency like Biden does. Obama was never really worse than a 75-25 shot to win, Biden has arguably been under 50-50 for six months.

Obama was weaker in two areas: the economy and the strength of his opponent. The economy was still weak and Romney was viewed as a good economic manager, although severe and heartless. Romney was not a great candidate just because he was so repulsive to lower class people, but on the whole better better than Trump.

The economy isn't much better now honestly. It's just that the unemployment rate is lower but the trade off is much higher inflation. And most of the new jobs are crappy min wage service jobs, if you want anything white collar it's harder than ever.

This delusion is really bizarre. Crappy service jobs are paying extremely well right now. White collar jobs are desperate to hire people too. I honestly think the main issue is that a lot of people took the free COVID money and secretly hoped that they'd get paid to do nothing for the rest of their lives.