Triage McGrath —> invest in Harrison
Triage both --> invest in actual swing seat candidates--Ossoff and Greenfield being the most obvious.
I've been bearish on this, but Harrison is one now. Yes, undecided voters probably lean Trump, but if he really does have 48% of likely voters on board already, that is extremely competitive - especially considering that this poll didn't prompt for the Constitution candidate who will be on the ballot and take votes disproportionately from Graham.
The race is lean R. Ossoff's is tilt R and Greenfield's looks to be a pure tossup, but this is not significantly more competitive - at least, not so much more so that SC isn't worth resources. That being said, Greenfield and Harrison are flush with cash already.
I don't buy it. Perhaps I believe too strongly in demographic fundamentals and think the number of ticket splitters is approaching zero, but Harrison actually getting more votes in SC than Graham seems utterly implausible to me. Without Harrison breaking through in urban Upstate SC, the numbers just don't work.
I'm skeptical too, but what are the chances of a higher-than-normal percentage of Constitution Party voters now that the word on Talk Radio/Fox is that Graham tried to sabotage Trump? Still a long shot, for sure, but it's the most plausible way I could see Harrison winning. That combined with Libertarian/Green voters at the Presidential level selecting Harrison, which they probably will.
