Kanye is out (UPDATE: Kanye is in again)

[DaleCooper]

People are underestimating the amount of organization and work (and years of it, at that) that it takes to form an independent party, which is essentially what West would have to do and he only has a couple weeks to do it if he wants to get on any ballots.

[DaleCooper]

I'd argue that people are not taking this seriously enough. Sure, there is very good reason to believe that this will crash and brun very fast and amount to nothing. But if he actually succeeds in putting together a team and get on the ballot in most states, then he could be a serious spoiler candidate and make no mistake about it, the candidate that he would hurt would be Joe Biden. Having said that, I do believe that after four years of the disaster that has been the Trump presidency, there is very little appetite for another dimwit narcissistic celebrity candidate.

Setting aside the fact that it is now implausible in most states for him to get on the ballot, what evidence do you have that 'the candidate that he would hurt would be Joe Biden'?

To be fair, polling data indicates that Democrats are hurt by independent candidates far more than Republicans. One wouldn't think that Justin Amash would hurt Ds more than Rs, but he absolutely would have. I'm sure it's the same with Kanye West.

The real issue here is that there is no feasible chance of him getting on even a handful of state ballots, and that's assuming he was actually serious about this and willing to invest tens of millions of dollars which he almost certainly isn't. I read that he just released the first single for his new album a couple days ago, so this is probably either a publicity stunt for his album or a manic episode.

[DaleCooper]

I'd argue that people are not taking this seriously enough. Sure, there is very good reason to believe that this will crash and brun very fast and amount to nothing. But if he actually succeeds in putting together a team and get on the ballot in most states, then he could be a serious spoiler candidate and make no mistake about it, the candidate that he would hurt would be Joe Biden. Having said that, I do believe that after four years of the disaster that has been the Trump presidency, there is very little appetite for another dimwit narcissistic celebrity candidate.

Setting aside the fact that it is now implausible in most states for him to get on the ballot, what evidence do you have that 'the candidate that he would hurt would be Joe Biden'?

To be fair, polling data indicates that Democrats are hurt by independent candidates far more than Republicans. One wouldn't think that Justin Amash would hurt Ds more than Rs, but he absolutely would have. I'm sure it's the same with Kanye West.

The real issue here is that there is no feasible chance of him getting on even a handful of state ballots, and that's assuming he was actually serious about this and willing to invest tens of millions of dollars which he almost certainly isn't. I read that he just released the first single for his new album a couple days ago, so this is probably either a publicity stunt for his album or a manic episode.

I'll have to strongly disagree with the bold--Amash was bound to hurt Biden more than Trump because Biden is leading partly on the backs of centrist voters and disaffected Republicans--many of who would rather vote for somebody closer to the center (from their standpoint) than a Democrat.

Of course he would have, but his policy is fringe, radical rightwing nonsense. It's an example of how the policies of these third-party candidates don't really matter all that much when it comes to who they take votes from.

[DaleCooper]

What are the chances that Kanye West actually is "out" of the presidential race, like that source told some publications a couple days ago, and the Oklahoma ballot fee and the FEC filing were done basically out of inertia because the "campaign" was too incompetent to communicate this to everyone involved?