Sweden election 2022

[perpetual_cynic]

Yes, policy-wise an S and M government (or at least some kind of support deal) could indeed work well.

Both parties represent The Establishment^TM and thus share a number of policy positions and have compatible governing attitudes:

• Both parties prefer incremental change and pursuing broad consensus and dislike radical policy swings.
• Both parties agree that the threat from Russia should be taken seriously and Sweden's defenses should be strengthened (especially the airforce and cybersecurity).
• Both parties now agree on NATO membership.
• Both parties agree that Sweden has taken in a large number of refugees and asylum seekers in a very short time period and while a minimum number should continue to be accepted, the overall numbers need to be cut
• Both parties agree that Sweden's immigration rules for low-earning labor are too generous and should be tightened, and conversely Sweden needs to do more to make high-skill/highly-educated immigration more attractive
• Both parties agree that growing segregation is a problem and that the police should be strengthened to deal with issues such as increased gang activity
• While they disagree on the specifics (obviously S being the labor union party and wants more worker-friendly policies while M is the party of the business community and wants to tweak rules such as the turn-taking and hiring & firing protections), both parties agree on the general structure of the Swedish Model regarding the pillars of the welfare state and maintaining the current labor market.
• Both parties agree that an industrial base should be maintained and becoming a purely service-based economy is undesirable.
• Both parties agree that nuclear energy forms a reliable base for about 35% of electricity generation and going fully-renewables carries too many risks.

But of course, as Realpolitik said, they despise each other to a pretty strong degree. M's entire thing is that they can take out a social democratic government, so supporting such a government or even PM would be a betrayal of their main issue. S would almost certainly demand the post of prime minister in any such arrangement as a condition for support, and this is unacceptable to M.

This isn't like Germany where the SPD and CDU can agree on things even when out of power (e.g. the asylum compromise between the CDU-FDP government and the SPD in 1992 or the defense spending package this past spring between the Scholz government and the CDU) or even like Finland where the Big 3 parties (SDP, NCP, Centre) take turns forming governments of two parties and then one goes into opposition. The SAP has been so dominant in Sweden historically that it changes the dynamic completely.

I'm not as familiar with Swedish politics as those of the U.S. or Canada, however, I was very interested to see the trends with the particular blocs over time (MP+V+S+C) vs (M+SD+KD+L) and I took it back to the 1998 elections just for reference. It seems there are large international trends going on with the rural drift to the populist and far-right (Trumpism in the United States), the (AfD in Germany), and the (SD in rural southern Sweden) that continued in this election if I'm not wrong. I also was super struck by the huge crash of Moderaterna and Liberalerna in the largest cities, particularly Uppsala and Stockholm. Do you think this has to do with the drift towards the populist right by the M under Kristersson? We also saw this trend I think after Brexit, Trump in the US, and Australia under Morrison (although not a populist drift in Australia). I knew Stockholm has long been more right-wing than most other European capitals, at least economically liberal but the right seems to have all but collapsed in the city. I guess my question is whether Stockholm and the cities have moved leftward or whether the right including M and L has moved right and why?

[perpetual_cynic]

You cannot do this meaningfully as those blocks are new. Until recently the arrangement was between a Socialist block (the SAP, V and the latterly the Greens) and what was always called the Bourgeois Block (M, C, KD, L). The SDs were at first a fringe party, and then a party with a substantial following with the status of parliamentary lepers.

You can’t even do a straight comparison to the 2018 election either. C and L were right wing parties that pointed to an M prime minister (but not if the SD were part of the majority). At 41% for SAP, V and MP, support for an SAP led government was clearly a minority opinion. With C de facto switching sides this year, 49% of people voted for parties that wanted an SAP led government. Really, this was in many respects a very good performance for the centre-left government, the problem being that they ‘shouldn’t’ have been in government in the first place.

Regardless of the exact percentages, Stockholm has moved leftward consistently since 1998 at the level of the Riksdag and municipal levels as the L and M seek further cooperation with SD. This is a consistent pattern I've studied in many historically right-wing strongholds with highly educated and wealthy populations. Like how moderate R's in this U.S. abandoned the R's under a more populist message compared to the old-school economic liberalism. M support in Stockholm Kommune is at a record low and this isn't because its going to L or SD. The support has shifted left to MP, V and S.

[perpetual_cynic]

You cannot do this meaningfully as those blocks are new. Until recently the arrangement was between a Socialist block (the SAP, V and the latterly the Greens) and what was always called the Bourgeois Block (M, C, KD, L). The SDs were at first a fringe party, and then a party with a substantial following with the status of parliamentary lepers.

You can’t even do a straight comparison to the 2018 election either. C and L were right wing parties that pointed to an M prime minister (but not if the SD were part of the majority). At 41% for SAP, V and MP, support for an SAP led government was clearly a minority opinion. With C de facto switching sides this year, 49% of people voted for parties that wanted an SAP led government. Really, this was in many respects a very good performance for the centre-left government, the problem being that they ‘shouldn’t’ have been in government in the first place.

This becomes even more evident when you consider the loosely defined bloc of left and right with that of the nation. If you take the blocs that I did (although I know the blocs have somewhat changed), the nation has moved right, while Stockholm has moved even more strikingly left over the same period. If you take the blocs that I defined we have these shifts of 2022 relative to the 2018, 2014, 2010, 2006, 2002 and 1998 elections respectively:

Stockholm Kommune:
V+S+MP+C+FI: 58.5%, +5%, +6%, +12%, 13%, +8%, +11%
M+SD+KD+L: 39.7%, -5%, -7%, -12%, -10%, -7%, -10%
Sweden:
V+S+MP+C+FI: 48.8%, -1%, -4%, -1%, -5%, -10%, -9%
M+SD+KD+L: 49.5%, +1%, +3%, +1%, +5%, +10%, +9%

What is happening in Stockholm is the exact opposite of what's going on in the country.