Jon Ralston on Nevada

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Ralston makes some good points; the poll's results are unlikely in magnitude, but could still suggests some concerns for Biden. I personally believe as of today NV is the only flip from 2020 Pres. Literally the case in my 2024 Prediction youtube video linked below for proof.

Demographically, Nevada is a state where Democrats should be concerned based on what recent polls, election results, and anecdotes suggests. It has low college attainment, over 60% non-white, and generally lacks pockets of high turnout white liberals that help provide Democrats solid floors in the other swing states. Also culturally the state seems like a bad fit for Biden, especially in the Vegas area.

Nevada was also the only one of the main swing states to swing right from 2016-->2020 Pres, and was also I'd argue the state where Democrats had the worst midterm losing the Governorship, barely squeaking by in the Senate race, and so on.

With that being said, Biden and Dems certainly aren't doomed in the state. The last time the state went R Presidentially was in 2004, Dems still won a few statewide races in 2022, and generally did fine at the Congressional and State Legislative levels. 2 wild cards that make Nevada tricky to predict is that despite all the investment it receives from being a swing state, it's still a relatively low turnout state, and it also has a highly transient population. This means there can be pretty significant variations in the Nevada electorate between cycles that are just tricky to account for and could work in either side's favor depending on the circumstances.

Given how Nevada's a relatively cheap state to invest in, especially for Democrats who's voters are extremely concentrated, money should continued to be invested here in the end.