Wisconsin is a swing state that purely comes down to turnout. In some ways, it's good because we know its going to be pretty damn close, but also its borderline impossible to predict turnout like we can with margins. So I guess let's just say for example the turnout is the same as 2020. Not neccesarily the same amount of raw votes, but the same proportion per county.
Even if Biden gets JANET margins in Dane, and the three WOW counties, that only puts the state around 2.5ish for Biden. All Trump has to do is swing the rest of the state 4 points in his favor to narrowly eeke out a win, and that doesn't even include Milwuakee! But Janet was probably the absolute ceiling for WI Dems. If Biden gets Evers margins in those places, Trump only needs to swing the rest of the state (not-including Milwuakee) by 3.
However, this assumes we get 2020 turnout rates. If the rural part of the state stays home, but the Dem engine comes out in Dane, then Biden can start running away with the state.
Barring that though, the state is going to be tight but Trump has more upside here than Biden, and the more I look at it I think he has better odds in Wisconsin than even Georgia now.
Yeah WI turnout is really interesting. Dane County tends to always have high turnout so if turnout is up statewide - it could actually be bad for Biden since there's only so much more to juice out of Dane.
To be fair Dem parts of Milwaukee tend to be some of the lowest turnout in the state - but much of that is heavily non-white areas where getting turnout up is generally harder and where non-voters may not be as favorable to Biden.
I think what happens in a lot of these smaller cities like Green Bay, Appleton, Oshkosh, Stevens Point, Ew Claire, Kenosha, Racine ect will be key to if Trump can flip the state. In 2020, these cities and their immediate surroundings generally swung left and if they do so again I see Trump's path to victory becoming very hard, even if he gains notable ground in rural WI.
