Rate Ohio Senate - Brown vs Moreno

[ProgressiveModerate]

Agree with what much of liberalrepublican said.

Unless something very unexpected happen, it's very likely that Trump wins Ohio and that Brown outruns Biden. The issue is Trump is likely to win OH by more than Brown outruns Biden. Say Trump wins OH by a similar 8% margin to 2016/2020; this would mean statewide Brown would have to achieve at least an 8% overperformance. These days, those types of overperformances in large geopolitically complex states is pretty rare - sure Collins was able to achieve something larger in 2020, but Maine is much smaller and geopolitically homogenous where local politics and branding makes that more doable.

2022-Sen is a good example of why this is a problem in OH. Ryan actually got respectable overperformances of Biden in most of rural OH, actually hitting the swing benchmarks he needed in a few counties if we assume universal swing is real. His downfall came from the fact he struggled to notably outrun Biden in any of the main urban and suburban OH counties. He ultimately lost by 6%.

Assuming Trump wins OH by a simillar margin to last time, Brown outrunning Biden by 8% in places like Franklin County and Delaware County is a pretty tall order; he's gonna need to consistently be outrunning Biden by like 12% in rural OH to have a shot which will be tricky if Rs federalize the race.

I do still think Brown has a path, especially because in recent years Republicans have frequently screwed up winnable races with incompetence and partisan infighting, and also because there is a chance if Biden is doing well nationally, OH can be kept close enough to where Brown doesn't need any crazy overperformances.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For the people saying lean D because "vibes" or "Brown is a strong candidate/Moreno is bad", those can be true and I nearly everyone on here agrees Brown will outrun Biden, but he'll likely need to outrun Biden by quite a bit. Having a solid overperformance of Biden doesn't necessarily mean victory.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The account was set up in Ft. Lauderdale where Moreno's parents lived so the intern excuse is probably a lie. I wouldn't assume this will go away because if he's been on these apps and people have taken screenshots then it will come out.

Tbh honest though say the story does evolve and it's shown he was genuinely active on that app to find "friends", would it really matter? A significant chunk of the right has become accepting or at least relatively passive around homosexuality, and most of the far-right folks who might actually care about would still vote for Moreno over Brown just because Trump says so.