Probably not, but it is one of those counties where the potential electorate has changed significantly even in just 4 years. Census population estimates have Collin County gaining 120k residents between 2020-2023. Another year of robust growth means there’s a potential for some surprises there. Obviously not even a majority of new residents will necessarily vote, but it’s possible some surprises could happen, and other suburban/exurban counties could see pretty strong swings as well. Collin used to be pretty consistently to the right of the statewide margin, but it leans Dem now (in O’Rourke’s runs, it went from being R+3.5 of the state to D+1). I’d imagine it’ll be blue if Allred wins, but I don’t expect that.
Yeah, winning Collin is necessary but not sufficient for both Allred and Biden. If they flip Denton, I think they've won the state.
I’m not even sure flipping Denton is indicative of Dems flipping the state anymore on it’s own. DFW seems to be in a world of it’s own in terms of it’s Dem-friendly trend in a way Houston isn’t.
Ye I could easily see Biden winning both Denton and Collin but losing TX statewide; that might actually be pretty close to the median outcome right now.
If Denton flips, the state is at least close though (like within 3%) because it likely suggests Dems are having another cycle of massive suburban gains around the state.
Poll
