2030 Reapportionment: Nightmare Scenario for Democrats?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really hard to say this far out; coalitions can change quite a bit.

One thing I'm optimistic about is by 2030 Dems have a good chance at having a divided government in both GA and TX, so the maps in those states may actually be fair. That is especially powerful in TX where political geography naturally favors Democrats, and that geographic advantage only seems to be getting better. In your analysis, it seems to be a given both will be drawn by Rs, but in a divided government scenario, TX could go from 25R-13D --> 18R - 4 - 18D, simillarly in GA 9R - 5D --> 8D - 7R. Those would go a long way in cancelling out Dems seats lost from D states.

In most of those red states, growth is largely powered by D-leaning areas, so even if Rs gerrymander, they'll likely be forced to cede more D-sinks. If UT and TN gain seats, good chance they'll be SLC and Nasheville sinks respectively. If Rs control GA they'll likely have to make the new seat an ATL sink. In TX the GOP will likely need at least one new sink in each of the majopr metros, possibly 2 in Dallas. Even in SC, I'm not concinced the GOP could draw a 7R-1D map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really hard to say this far out; coalitions can change quite a bit.

One thing I'm optimistic about is by 2030 Dems have a good chance at having a divided government in both GA and TX, so the maps in those states may actually be fair. That is especially powerful in TX where political geography naturally favors Democrats, and that geographic advantage only seems to be getting better. In your analysis, it seems to be a given both will be drawn by Rs, but in a divided government scenario, TX could go from 25R-13D --> 18R - 4 - 18D, simillarly in GA 9R - 5D --> 8D - 7R. Those would go a long way in cancelling out Dems seats lost from D states.

In most of those red states, growth is largely powered by D-leaning areas, so even if Rs gerrymander, they'll likely be forced to cede more D-sinks. If UT and TN gain seats, good chance they'll be SLC and Nasheville sinks respectively. If Rs control GA they'll likely have to make the new seat an ATL sink. In TX the GOP will likely need at least one new sink in each of the majopr metros, possibly 2 in Dallas. Even in SC, I'm not concinced the GOP could draw a 7R-1D map.

I'm gonna try to draw a complete map extrapolating population trends for SC, but just from 5 minutes in DRA I think 7-1 is still possible. Clyburn's seat has to expand more and more each cycle from Black Belt depopulation so it would grab more of the Charleston area and keep SC-01 from getting that blue. The issue for SC-01 is that the trends among educated Whites might just overpower any gerrymander.

Fair - perhaps they draw a 6-1-1 map with a swingy Charleston seat - it's going to be increasingly harder to keep that seat R-leaning, especially if it has to shed population. Everything else can be made at least likely R though, though again impossible to say how things will look politically by 2030; this assumes trends largely continue as expected.

We'll also have to see how VRA holds up as well as black growth - the new seat may have to be a 2nd black functioning seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nothing is more democratic then dooming about events six years out

I can't believe it's only 6 years away honestly. It feels like just a few months ago it was early 2021. Time flies fast.

Yeah lol. I think it's in part because 2022 redistricting was pretty dragged out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In terms of NC, if Democrats can get their act together in that state in a manner similar to what they managed to accomplish in Wisconsin, they could first retake the Supreme Court in either 2028 or 2030, which would likely force that state to give them additional congressional seats in the 2030s.

Pretty unlikely. Dems have really struggled to win statewide elections in NC and that requires them to sweep or come close to sweeping all the remaining court elections of the decade.

Another problem is even on a fair maps geography helps Republicans and remember in NC the Governor's veto is notoriously weak. Even if Dems control the state supreme court and the state had fairer maps, R legislature could essentially govern the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In terms of NC, if Democrats can get their act together in that state in a manner similar to what they managed to accomplish in Wisconsin, they could first retake the Supreme Court in either 2028 or 2030, which would likely force that state to give them additional congressional seats in the 2030s.

Pretty unlikely. Dems have really struggled to win statewide elections in NC and that requires them to sweep or come close to sweeping all the remaining court elections of the decade.

Another problem is even on a fair maps geography helps Republicans and remember in NC the Governor's veto is notoriously weak. Even if Dems control the state supreme court and the state had fairer maps, R legislature could essentially govern the state.

He said “if Democrats can get their act together”. Democrats were not seen as viable parties in Arizona or Georgia at this point a decade ago.

Is there a reason to think NC Dems’ luck won’t change? Especially with Mark Robinson as the face of the NCGOP now?

Also three of the seats will all be up in 2028. If they don’t lose both of their races before then, they’ll flip the court for 2028 with a clean sweep.

I think Dems could have success in winning statewide elections. The issue is in NC that’s not important unless you can win the legislature. In NC, it’d be hard for Dems to win the state leg on a strictly urban/suburban coalition like in AZ or GA; they’d have to come back in parts of rural and small town eastern NC where they lose ground by the cycle.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In terms of NC, if Democrats can get their act together in that state in a manner similar to what they managed to accomplish in Wisconsin, they could first retake the Supreme Court in either 2028 or 2030, which would likely force that state to give them additional congressional seats in the 2030s.

Pretty unlikely. Dems have really struggled to win statewide elections in NC and that requires them to sweep or come close to sweeping all the remaining court elections of the decade.

Another problem is even on a fair maps geography helps Republicans and remember in NC the Governor's veto is notoriously weak. Even if Dems control the state supreme court and the state had fairer maps, R legislature could essentially govern the state.

He said “if Democrats can get their act together”. Democrats were not seen as viable parties in Arizona or Georgia at this point a decade ago.

Is there a reason to think NC Dems’ luck won’t change? Especially with Mark Robinson as the face of the NCGOP now?

Also three of the seats will all be up in 2028. If they don’t lose both of their races before then, they’ll flip the court for 2028 with a clean sweep.

I think Dems could have success in winning statewide elections. The issue is in NC that’s not important unless you can win the legislature. In NC, it’d be hard for Dems to win the state leg on a strictly urban/suburban coalition like in AZ or GA; they’d have to come back in parts of rural and small town eastern NC where they lose ground by the cycle.

Not on the current NC map no, but a fair map would crack communities to maximize Democratic seats like Wisconsin’s does even if it’s not geographically compact.

This is pretty tricky unless you eliminate the current County cluster rule (which tbf a liberal court could do).

[ProgressiveModerate]

TBH, I don't think the House would be the problem for Democrats with this allocation.  A lot of the gaining R states are presently maxed out and the probability of having a say in Georgia is pretty high. 

The problem is the presidency.  It's really the South or bust!  Even this is a Republican win on that EC map:

I think EC depends on if these sunbelt states like GA and AZ projected to gain seats continue to shift D long term. If by the end of the decade AZ and GA are out of reach for the GOP and they’re struggling in TX, then the GOP is in pretty big EC trouble overall, even if they make gains in the rust belt and NV