Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[ProgressiveModerate]

Actually there is a really solid argument Dems should invest more in NC than GA for 2024.

NC just has more important things at stake; the Governorship, a State Supreme Court Race, A competitive US House race, and the State legislative Supermajority.

In GA on the other hand, Dems might have a small chance of flipping the State House and that's it. Also a ton of Dems gains in GA have been caused by growth and local campaigning/investments, so even if Biden didn't invest much in the state, he could still win it.

I think some people are overestimating the partisan delta between NC and GA - they voted less than 2 points apart in 2020, but it feels like a much larger divide because their absolute outcomes were different.

With all this being said, I still think GA would be an easier carry for Biden than NC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?

I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."

For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.

Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.

I'm not saying GA's long term trend isn't left, but obviously there is some natural fluctuation. Just like climate change, you have ups & downs even if the long term trend is up.

While in 2024, GA might solidly back Trump or like +2/+3 margin, it could very well be +5 D in 2028.

I'm not saying it will become solidly R again. But the process might not be as smooth as sometimes it's stated, some people seem to believe GA might never vote R anymore except for maybe locally.

2010 was also a horrible year for the Democrats nation-wide.

The reason i believe 2024 is turn-out dynamics and the fact that Biden as an incumbent is very popular too, if people believe the entire southeast is going to swing right-wing, than why would Georgia be immune to that.

I wouldn't be so confident if i were other people, and there is a reason why some of the Democratic strategists are saying this, or why the polls so far in Georgia are not looking good. It's not simply, because they are wrong.

And i'm not saying Democrats shouldn't target Georgia. They should always do so, they would be stupid to not too. It's also still january (!), a lot can happen still.

I'm not expecting a dramatic swing in the suburbs (tho some swing is possible). I just believe turnout in Atlanta proper / metro might not be as great as in 2020, and if there are less raw votes from there, there's less room for error. It's not all about the swings and the independents and suburbs, it's also about turnout and raw vote and if the youth or black voters aren't enthusiastic, you'll notice that.

1.7 million is black in metro atlanta



and it's a youthful city. Pretty sure the average 25 yr old might not care as much for a white 81 year old president.

And even a 10% drop in turnout would be very notable, thats like 170.000 people less, enough for a +5 win for Trump.



Don't believe me?

Look at what Obama did in 2008 and the drop from 2012 (less enthusiasm)

But also what Biden did in 2020. That will be insanely hard to replicate again. And you can sort of expect that for a lot of Atlanta proper and inner suburbs.

Go back to 2016 levels Atlanta and you already have 90.000 ppl of the 160.000 you need, for my hypothetical explanation and this is just Fulton County.

And 2020 had exceptional HIGH turnout.

This is the main reason why polls in GA are this bad (the +5 margin), and while this can be still solved up to election day, it will be hard to replictae 2020 because 2020 was exceptional, and progress isn't continuous (taking one step back to make two forward is common).

Secondly, an anti-Trump voter might not necessarily vote for Biden. And Herschel Walker is no Trump. Neither is Biden Warnock.



here, dekalb. And no i'm not saying its gonna swing right or so. I'm talking about raw vote, that would mean the votes statewide would be less to made up for losses in rural GA. Though in DeKalb it would a few tens of K you lose as opposed to maybe 100K in Fulton.



Like check how much turnout rose in Gwinnett.

even Trump gained 20K in raw vote but Dems 80K. So a 60K increase in widening vote difference here. I mean it's about certainly going to fall a bit. This is such an exceptionally great performance that it basically requires high enthusiasm and great turnout efforts, and the first might be an issue given Biden no longer has the benefit of ppl not having seen them in office while Trump has somewhat faded to the background.

Except the 2020 trends in GA were backed up by 16 years of major swings toward Dems in the Atlanta metro. Warnock also replicated and expanded on Biden's coalition in the 2022 regular and runoff election. Turnout also dropped from the 2022 general to runoff but Warnock's margin increased.

These are not presidential elections, Trump wasn't on the ballot. That's not the same. Besides turnout for midterms are always lower than presidential years, and it's clear a lot of republicans here stayed home, esp. for the runoff.

Secondly, it's the raw vote margin that matters, not percentage. A percentage swing might increase with lower turnout but the raw vote margin might decrease (though that seems not like what happened in 2022). But it's Trump vs Biden, not Walker vs Warnock.

To give you an example, i'm 99% sure i would vote for Warnock if i lived in Georgia while i'm not that sure about Biden - as an example, and would be more inclined to not vote/write-in someone or something. Every election is unique.

I'm just confused by your analysis. Warnock had a turnout drop off in 2022, and he actually did better that Biden. So why couldn't Biden also build on his 2020 performance in GA if runs a good campaign? It's not as if those voters you speak of were all that excited about Biden in 2020 either...

Because rural GA also had a turnout collapse.

I think what they're arguing is if Atlanta has disproportionately poor turnout relative to the rest of GA. Imo that's unlikely, but it's what they're argument is from what I gather.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Agree, but black turnout in GA, mainly in metro ATL was higher in 2020 than 2012 even once you adjust for growth, albeit not by that much. Overall, I think the GOP has to start cutting Dem margins with black voters in GA and fast if they want to stay viable long term. Having 30%+ of the state be a group that historically votes 90-10 against you is not a good place to be, especially when you have growing numbers of other unfavorable groups like Hispanics, Asians and College Ed whites. Rmbr, GA is a majority-minority state now.