Solidly Republican suburbs (user search)
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  Solidly Republican suburbs (search mode)
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Author Topic: Solidly Republican suburbs  (Read 835 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: December 29, 2023, 08:53:07 AM »

Tbf I would argue some of them listed by OP are exurbs.

Suprised no one has mentioned Tampa or Jacksonville, which have some pretty red suburbs with the help of retirees.

Generally, I think the most likely places to still find these safe R suburbs are in places with high racial polarization, such as the southeastern US
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2023, 10:37:31 PM »


Tbf I would argue some of them listed by OP are exurbs.

Suprised no one has mentioned Tampa or Jacksonville, which have some pretty red suburbs with the help of retirees.

Generally, I think the most likely places to still find these safe R suburbs are in places with high racial polarization, such as the southeastern US

Tampa only if you count the northern counties like Citrus, Hernando and Pasco (Trump got 59% there but close enough) and while its built up continuously from Tampa, I believe US census counts them as separate metro areas.  In Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, Trump won many suburbs, especially the over 90% ones, but almost none did he crack the 60% mark.  55/45 GOP/Dem split seemed to be the norm in most of Pinellas County and Biden only narrowly won it due to winning by 25 points in St. Petersburg.  In fact in much of Southern Florida, the heavily white with large senior population was pretty consistently GOP in 50s, Dems in 40s.

Jacksonville is harder to say as yes neighboring counties GOP gets over 60% but most are more exurban and have large rural portion than suburbs.  Only areas that border Jacksonville are suburban and I imagine GOP wins those but probably closer than the county as a whole. 

Fair point on Tampa; there def are patches of Trump >60% suburban precincts scattered about, but only rlly small patches.

For Jacknsonville, I'd say the northeast corner of Clay County has some pretty red objective suburbs
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2023, 10:48:24 PM »



Are there any upscale educated suburbs of major metros left that still vote heavily GOP?

I can think of two.

In Utah there is but heavily Mormon as some of the Salt Lake City suburbs are well off and quite educated and still went GOP, albeit the swing was just as big if not bigger than elsewhere.  Those same suburbs went around 80% for Romney, while Trump got only 60% so big swing still.  In case of Salt Lake City ones, religiosity not education was biggest driver with more secular ones going Democrat but more religious ones staying GOP.  Now in rest of US, people who are well off and educated tend to be less religious thus why you don't see this elsewhere. 

Other possibility is Houston as you have in northern suburbs many who are well off, college educated, but work in energy sector and since GOP thinks climate change is a hoax and opposes any restrictions on development in energy sector, no surprise.  Its same reason in Canada, Calgary despite its size, being well off and educated still votes Conservative.  In many ways I believe northern suburbs of Houston are much like south side of Calgary which is well off, educated, fairly white, but many work in energy sector. 

Tbh, I feel like Northern Houston suburb's wealth is a bit overrated:



In the black outlined area the median household income is 120k, which is decent, but nothing crazy impressive. Only a very small handful of precincts does the median household income crack 200k, and in many of those Trump didn't even get 60%.

Fort Bend County has a higher median household income than Montgomery County and the total outlined area.
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