ProgressiveModerate
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Posts: 14,037
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« on: May 31, 2023, 06:20:54 PM » |
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Tilt lean, arguably almost lean D as of right now but we're just so far out.
While midterm results and the Supreme Court race aren't perfect indicators, they showed relatively straong performances from Dems overall, and mind you that was with Milwaukee proper having some very crappy turnout.
By "default" Biden should win it, unless Trump finds a way to squeeze out some more votes from rural WI, not only in driftless, but also the denser north and northeastern parts of the state. Given recent post-2020 results, I'm pretty sure both Madison and greater Milwaukee swing left, and Biden has potential in the Fox Valley.
I think one misconception I've seen about WI is that it's the most rural of the "big three". While this is technically true, it's not by as big of a delta as many here seem to suggest, and also WI rurals are just demographically different; scattered Native American populations and higher levels of educational attainment gives Dems a higher floor in these rurals than MI or PA.
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