What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch? (user search)
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  What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch?  (Read 1211 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: April 10, 2023, 11:38:45 PM »

I don't mean one off randos but will there be a general theme as to who the vote flippers are?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2023, 11:23:40 PM »

^ and Asian Americans, though they don’t get much attention (cause so many live in NYC and Cali), are also trending right. Here in NYC, there are some recognizable Chinese-American clusters in South Brooklyn that have been trending Republican for multiple election cycles. They were one of the many factors for Lee Zeldin’s solid performance last November

https://news.yahoo.com/more-asian-americans-voting-republican-230020012.html

Cope. The NYC Chinatowns were never not going to trend R in local elections barring a Steve Miller-type takeover of the GOP. This seemed rather obvious to me as far back as the Obama era.

Also the R trends the Nextshark article you linked speak of aren't necessarily "bad" or "preventable" for Dems so long as it's due to increased turnout from newer naturalized immigrants breaking close to 50-50. Blacks and Latinos also trended R in 2020 due to increased turnout.



It’s not about turnout where new Chinese Americans are voting 50-50, nor is it “not bad” for Dems.  Dems have recently lost seats in local districts with large Chinese-American populations (eg Lester Chang in the 49th council district in 2022, Inna Vernikov in the 48th district in 2018 ). The Sunset Park area, which used to vote 70% Dem, voted for Lee Zeldin in 2022; and he won 23 predominantly Asian election districts combined in the two Assembly districts. Overall, Asian voters in NYC shifted 23% rightwards. (see: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/05/nyregion/election-asians-voting-republicans-nyc.html).In the year prior, as well, Curtis Sliwa got 44% of the vote in Asian-majority districts in NYC when he faced Eric Adams

In 2020, Asians voted 68-30% Dems nationally. In 2022, they voted 64%-32% Dem. In contrast, Dems had a 50-point advantage in 2004, a 56-point advantage in 2012, and a 61-point advantage in 2016



It's insane to think Zeldin nearly won a precinct in Chinatown (Manhattan). I think culturally, many Asian families tend to have more traditional values, so I think in some ways the GOP being more defined by social issues may actually help them with Asian American voters.
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