In your view, what were some of the biggest gerrymandering miscalculations (post-2022)

[ProgressiveModerate]

This can be at any level.

It also doesn't have to mean the gerrymander outright failed this cycle, but there are clear warning signs it could backfire big time.

Firstly, I think it's important to note that in order for a gerrymander to truly backfire, it has to backfire pretty big time. Say for instance Texas's gerrymander produces a 25R-13D delegation up until 2028 where Ds flip TX-03 and make the delegation 24R-14D. Yes, one of the seats intended to go for Rs fell to Ds, but overall the gerrymander was successful cause for the entire decade, it produced a lopsided delegation in Republicans favor hence achieving it's intended goal.

These are a few of my thoughts:

I would say Kansas comes to mind. The KS GOP literally brought in a member on their deathbed to override Laura Kelly's veto for quite an ugly looking map aimed at eliminating Democratic congresswoman Sharice Davids, only for Davids to go on to win re-election in a landslide. Furthermore, on the State Legislative level, it seems like they tried to bacon-strip out the outer-ring of suburban Johnson County seats to make them narrow Trump districts, even though Johnson Couny has been shifting hard left, and infact Democrats already flipped one of these seats in an upset in 2022 and came very close in 2 others. While the overall control of the legislature isn't competitive (at least right now), it could easily deprive Rs of their supermajority come 2024.

Texas. I think the congressional map as ugly as it is is quite effective, but the State House gerrymander seems poorly done. Yes, I know Texas has county splitting rules for legislative maps and yes, ik political geography sucks for Rs, but they were super greedy in places like Collin and Denton counties rather than ceding an extra seat or two to Dems and pushing the median district pretty far right. For instance, from 2016-2020 Pres, Collin County shifted 12 points left, and yet, there are 4 Trump seats are closer than Trump + 12, def not very secure.

Oregon. I would say the Congressional map is fine, even if this time OR-05 failed, but in the state legislature, Ds came pretty close to losing their State Senate majority despite OR being a pretty blue state. It also seems like the maps they drew make it very very hard for Ds to win a supermajority in either chamber which again is def doable given how blue OR is topline.

Missouri Congressional. Firstly it’s horrendously ugly. Yet the GOP couldn’t get their act together to crack Kansas City or even weaken the existing KS-05. Furthermore, they only barely showed up Wagner into a Trump + 7 seat that at least this past decade, has had some pretty bad shifts for the GOP; Wagner “only” won by 12 this cycle despite facing a nobody, and Schmidt only carried the district by like 3. Could actually result in a 5R-3D delegation later in the decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I foresee Georgia being a mild dummymander with 11 and 6 flipping, and 9 might even become mildly competitive.

Ohio is another one where hall their attempts failed to gain them a seat, in fact it lost them one

Kansas is just weird

I think even if 6 and 11 flip, the GA gerrymander is still a success since that'd produce a 7-7 delegation while Ds are presumably winning statewide by quite a bit.

I think outside 6 and 11, the next most likely seat to flip would be Trump + 23 GA-10. Warnock put up a surprisingly strong showing in the district, and black spillover from Henry and Newton Counties should continue to push the district left. I wouldn't count on it flipping but it should def narrow.

While I agree shifts in GA-09 are very favorable to Ds, it's still a Trump + 38 district that has a lot of deep red Appalachian communities. I think under any scenario, it stays safe R for the decade.

I rmbr during the redistricting cycle, there was some talk around the GOP only ceding 3 ATL sinks rather than the 4 they ultimately decided on, which would've had potential for a big time dummymander.