Can/will Dems overcome their Wisconsin Geography problem?

[ProgressiveModerate]

One of the biggest stories of 2022 was Dems unexpected gains in state legislatures around the country, specifically flipping the MI and PA state assemblies after years of Republican dominance.

In Wisconsin however, democrats only won 35/99 seats in the lower chamber, and 11/33 in the upper chamber, despite the statewide popular vote when adjusted for uncontested races being essentially tied.

In PA and MI, Dems were largely able to flip the legislature thanks to peeling off a bunch of these suburban seats which had been held by Rs for decades in many cases. This included suburbs of dominant metros like Detroit and Philly, but also of smaller metros like Grand Rapids and Pittsburg.

In Wisconsin however, Dems have not experienced the same suburban gains when it actually comes to seat count. This is largely because the previously super Republican WOW suburbs of Milwaukee have become a bit less R, but overall still lean R, while in Madison, the suburbs have always leaned blue and have only gotten bluer. This is all as their support in the “drift less” region and other rural areas of the state erodes. The WOW “suburbs” are a lot more exurban in nature so there’s a good chance they may never really flip D outside of maybe Waukesha proper.

On a neural partisan-blind map of the WI legislature, Dems will always end up in a pretty deep minority no matter what.

I tend to think Dems are kinda screwed and their best shot at gains would be improving in these smaller cities scattered throughout the state, especially the northeastern part of the state, such as Green Bay, Apple, and Sheboygan.

On the congressional level, part of what’s unfortunate for Dems is the specific number of 8 seats. 8 seats is perfect for making a greater Madison seat and a Milwaukee based seat, with no Dem pockets outside of those large enough to sustain a D leaning CD. Cracking Milwaukee to create a 2nd D leaning state would be hard to do legally given WI-04 is still VRA protected, and cracking Dane County/Madison is just cracking a very coherent community for the sake of partisan gain. Add a 9th seat and a competaive/D leaning Milwaukee seat falls much more naturally as well as a true tossup ductless seat. Take away 1, 2, or even 3 districts and Madison and Milwaukee D leaning districts will still exits.

Long term, do Dems have any hope in the WI legislature?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why on earth do you think WI-04 is VRA protected? It's only 31% BVAP (just checked), and all the black neighborhoods are nested in it. It may be black performing but it is not VRA protected.

For some reason I always thought it was higher. Whether it's protected or not, cracking Milwaukee which is a very clear COI that nests nicely in a CD would be pretty egregiously

[ProgressiveModerate]

I gave my go at drawing a partisan blind fair WI State Senate map that basically ignores the current lines that were drawn with clear partisan intent. The map broke 19Trump-14Biden, 22Trump-11Clinton, 19Scott-14Evers, and 20Baldwin-13Vukmir.

Still a notable R tilt but not as the current map. The current map basically tries to pack Dems into just 4 Milwaukee seats and makes a proactive effort to crack clear swing seats based around Ew-Claire, Apple, and Green Bay.

The area I feel least sure about is the northeast part of the state due to the relatively weird spread of the cities and counties sort of misaligning with COIs.

The issue for Dems on this map is outside the 6 Biden-won Milwaukee district, there isn't really anywhere for Dems to gain in that area. Dems have to hold the Obama-Trump-Trump seats that have been shifting against them such as the Eau-Claire seat, northern seat, or the Kenosha and Racine based seats.





(2020 Pres numbers used)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9689ecc7-7824-493b-86fb-c1bb13d41aa0

[ProgressiveModerate]

On a side note it's interesting that Wisconsin's so split status is actually due to two rather flukish areas.

If the Milwaukee suburbs voted like the Twin Cities suburbs, Wisconsin would be a solid D state. If you draw a "district" in DRA with WOW removed (equivalent to them being 50/50) you get a 6-point Biden victory...if they leaned D slightly that would probably be about 7 points, aka same as here in Minnesota. And if they voted like Chicago suburbs, it'd be the second safest D state not on the coast.

But if Dane County voted like a more "normal" college town like Eau Claire or La Crosse, it'd be a Lean R state. I also tried drawing removing much of Dane County to adjust for if it gave a D margin that it would at a percentage comparable to those states, and I got a fairly narrow victory for both Trump and Walker. Evers would probably win this year, but he also wouldn't be an incumbent.

Oh yeah and that's why I think WI is so fun as a swing state. We're in an era where regional issues/divides/cultures tend not to matter as much on the federal level as raw demographics, but WI is a clear exception making the state trouble but fun.

One thing that's interesting about the WOW counties is that the suburbs don't seem all that dense, especially when compared to how dense Milwaukee proper actually is.

And Madison really lacks true suburbs tbh; there's a very stark cutoff from urban to rural, largely due to the rapidly growing nature of the city.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just don’t see it as possible for Dems to ever have a majority barring a mega wave.

However, I think this election kind of jettisoned the idea of Wisconsin’s red inevitability that many, including myself, had assumed. For as much room as there is to fall for Dems in rural Wisconsin, it seems the suburbs are getting noticeably bluer. I imagine Biden would get at least 40% in Waukesha in 2020 and possibly win a few municipalities there in a Trump rematch.

Wisconsin is weird. It used to be the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs were a massive GOP vote net, the rural areas were swingy but generally a slight GOP vote net, and Madison and Milwaukee were the Dem vote nets.

Now the GOP is far more reliant on a rural base in WI whereas Dem's base has become much more concentrated to Madison and Milwaukee.

I think the one good thing for Dems in WI long term is that Madison is growing pretty fast, and that growth seems to be exclusively liberal. It won't help them a ton on the state legislative level, but Dane County will continue to net them more and more votes.

The good thing for the GOP in WI is that the rural areas are basically stagnant, compared to say MN, MI, and PA where rural areas are generally losing population pretty badly. Milwaukee proper is also losing population and has been for a while.

As others have pointed out though, WI rurals are probably never going to be as red as rurals in neighboring states due to a scattering of Native Americans and tourism/liberal "retirement" communities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just don’t see it as possible for Dems to ever have a majority barring a mega wave.

However, I think this election kind of jettisoned the idea of Wisconsin’s red inevitability that many, including myself, had assumed. For as much room as there is to fall for Dems in rural Wisconsin, it seems the suburbs are getting noticeably bluer. I imagine Biden would get at least 40% in Waukesha in 2020 and possibly win a few municipalities there in a Trump rematch.

Wisconsin is weird. It used to be the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs were a massive GOP vote net, the rural areas were swingy but generally a slight GOP vote net, and Madison and Milwaukee were the Dem vote nets.

Now the GOP is far more reliant on a rural base in WI whereas Dem's base has become much more concentrated to Madison and Milwaukee.

I think the one good thing for Dems in WI long term is that Madison is growing pretty fast, and that growth seems to be exclusively liberal. It won't help them a ton on the state legislative level, but Dane County will continue to net them more and more votes.

The good thing for the GOP in WI is that the rural areas are basically stagnant, compared to say MN, MI, and PA where rural areas are generally losing population pretty badly. Milwaukee proper is also losing population and has been for a while.

As others have pointed out though, WI rurals are probably never going to be as red as rurals in neighboring states due to a scattering of Native Americans and tourism/liberal "retirement" communities.

The growth in Dane isn't as good as you think. Look at the old CD map. WI04 was 40k underpopulated while WI02 was 50k overpopulated. The 5th was right on dot while the 1st was slightly underpopulated likely due to the cities of Kenosha/Racine. *edit  just checked and the Kenosha/Racine senate districts were like 8k underpopulated so yes that does confirm it.

Fair, but Madison is a significantly higher turnout/more reliable city than Milwaukee. I’d say for every voter Dems lose in Milwaukee, they gain just under 2 in Madison.

WOW also has respectable growth, but it’s a bit unclear who that favors. WOW leans R overall but the suburbs have been narrowing; are they narrowing due to genuine vote flipping or due to new voters?