MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the ultimate outcome of this race will in large part have to do with how localized Tester keeps things. Despite all the outside spending, Susan Collins did a very good job of this in 2020. I can pretty much guarantee Rs will nominate someone who tries to nationalize it and basically has 0 crossover appeal, so how Tester defines himself is important.

He needs to find crossover support. While it may be possible one day, Missoula, Helena, and Bozeman are only going to get you halfway there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't mean this in the wrong way, but Tester is a really big guy and he's approaching 70; does anyone know like how his health is? I think it's particularly important because if Tester wants to win re-election, it will almost surely involve an extremely involved ground campaign on his part talking to voters.

Tester is facing a tough re-election, but I don't think it's impossible to win. I tend to not like comparing Senate races, but I could see a window where this plays out a bit like ME-Sen 2020 where Dems got a bit overconfident in their nominee whereas Susan Collins did a good job at staying connected to the needs of her state. Dems nationalized the race to the point where Gideon was painted in a very negative lite. Except now ofc the tables are reversed.

Any winning coalition on Tester's part will probably look a bit different than 2018. In 2018, he ran really far ahead of federal partisanship in rural areas, especially in these western communities and these working class communities that have been shifting away from Dems. Obviously he'll still need to outperform Biden in these areas to have any shot, but he'll probably need to win these traditionally more conservative cities like Billings outright. It's physically hard for him to do much better than Biden in the cores of places like Missoula and Bozeman, but how he does on the outskirts will also be key.

[ProgressiveModerate]

According to an Article published by "The Hill" Tester hasn't even decided whether to seek Re-Election in 2024. He will decide over the Holidays.

Good point. Tester retiring would be a pretty big deal since it’d further close an already narrow Senate path. Conventional wisdom as of now would tell me Dems easiest path is holding all their senate seats in Biden states + winning 2 of OH, TX, and MT. Montana being off the table gives them basically 1 realistic path unless there’s a *HUGE* surprise in Indiana, Florida, or Missouri.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the “Tester is the D Collins” takes are a bit overrated, even if he obviously won’t lose by 20. He still does need probably 50,000-60,000 Trump voters to vote for him which doesn’t seem like an easy task also unlike Collins his previous elections were all close, but I do think Democrats are likelier to hold on here than in Ohio.

Yeah, I said it as a loose comparison. There are a ton of ways in which the 2 races are similar, just they have some similarities at face value.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the kind of ruthlessness that has long been missing from the MT GOP's way of operating, with election results reflecting that for an equally long time. I support this, but I wouldn’t count on it passing.

More worrying for Democrats than this bill (which might be struck down by the Court if it passed in the state legislature) are the Census numbers:

https://twitter.com/jeremycarl4/status/1641565670507945985

The theory that 2020 was mostly a one-off because of "pandemic refugees" or "Trump-only voters" was already disproven badly in 2022, when virtually every state legislative race mirrored the 2020 results. The state is more polarized internally than at any point in time I can remember.

Yeah those census numbers if true should be concerning, but it seems like a lot of these current estimates are subject to the same errors the estimates had pre-2020 census, underestimating a lot of bluer cities. For instance, the NYC estimates seem physically close to impossible unless suddenly the average household size decreased by nearly 10% (most will rmbr NYC performed much better than expected in the census).

According to the 2020 census, Bozeman had pretty insane growth (fastest growing part of MT) whereas greater Missoula and Helena grew but nothing to write home about.

I think people also need to rmbr that places like Missoula, Helena, and Bozeman are all relatively small, even as a % of Montana's overall population. More Conservative Billings is the biggest.

I think as you say, Ds biggest concern in MT should be if it's becoming sort of like Idaho; growing communities of conservative transplants trying to create conservative paradise.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Higher turnout helps Republicans in Montana. Rosendale will win, probably by about 52-45 or something like that.

Yeah in 2018, turnout dynamics clearly favored Democrats pretty heavily in MT. I wonder if Tester would've won with the same crossover appeal but on the 2020 electorate?

In order for Tester to have a chance here, Biden prolly needs to do a few points better in MT than he did in 2020, which starts with making further improvements in places like Helena, Missouri, Bozeman, Billings, and Boise.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1674542693853331456
Dude tweets this out literally every week. He's like a self parody. LOOK AT MY FINGERS. I'M FAT JUST LIKE YOU. VOTE FOR ME. It's not 2018 and I don't think this minstrel safari whatever you want to call it strategy keeps working, at least so long as Rosendale doesn't get the GOP nom.

I'll give him this much, he knows how to play the fake #populist game.

It's going to be a lot harder to defend when he is constantly bombarded with "Jon Tester was the decisive vote for Joe Biden," etc. ads. Also he really benefitted from his race not being heavily targeted in 2018. I think Rosendale would win too in the end though.

What are you talking about?  It was one of 2018’s marquee Senate races

From what I remember NV, AZ, IN, MO, and FL were the most heavily targeted with ND being seen as Lean R, and WV and MT seen as Lean D. I think I expected like Tester by 5 or 6 in the end.

I think in hindsight, the GOP didn't realize how much partisanship would win out, so given they had so many targets already and already controlled the Senate, they were willing to not go after a few Ds in deep red states that in hindsight, they prolly could've beaten. Generally there was a lot more emphasis on the House in 2018.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As more Millennial and Gen Z candidates run, I don't think social media posts will have much of an impact unless it's something really bad. This doesn't look like anything worse than what an average 2000s college guy would post.

I was thinking about this quite a bit recently since almost every kid raised in the US has some sort of social media trail these days and you could probably find something to use against them. I probably have many posts on this forum that could be used against me for instance. I wonder if everyone just sort of mutually agrees anything posted before the age of 25 or smtg really doesn't matter unless it's very extreme.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As more Millennial and Gen Z candidates run, I don't think social media posts will have much of an impact unless it's something really bad. This doesn't look like anything worse than what an average 2000s college guy would post.

I was thinking about this quite a bit recently since almost every kid raised in the US has some sort of social media trail these days and you could probably find something to use against them. I probably have many posts on this forum that could be used against me for instance. I wonder if everyone just sort of mutually agrees anything posted before the age of 25 or smtg really doesn't matter unless it's very extreme.

Exactly. As the generational composition of the electorate changes, so will their standards. Old photos of a candidate drinking at a college party (even if they were underage) or posing in a skimpy swimsuit at the beach are not scandalous.

Wonder if to some, it makes them more relatable, confident, ect.

Still it's important to remember today in 2023 you still have a large chunk of the electorate that didn't grow up with social media and may not understand this situation the way we might. However, if these sorts of "scandals" become more common, they'll prolly numb to them too.

Honestly, the thing that might be the biggest impediment more has to do with if people posted political views extremely contrary to what they're currently espousing. That will always make some partisans question loyalty. It'll also make it harder for people who grew up in well-to-do families to play the working class struggling upbringing story.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Normal voters just want politicians who make their lives better/fight for them/they can relate to, and it’s not that hard to see why Tester fits that description better than Biden.

Case in point: Jon Tester ticked all three of those boxes in his first ad-

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1721875479005921526?

I feel really smart now.

Solid ad that — in addition to the above — (1) also combats the perception that he has "gone Washington", (2) skillfully identifies the issues Joe Biden is most vulnerable on (cost of living, lack of leadership) and uses them to his own advantage, (3) paves the way for the (predictable) playbook against Rosendale and Sheehy (wealthy out-of-staters/politicians propped up by out-of-staters who have been threatening the Montana way of life), exploiting (very real) anti-outsider sentiment in the state.

What does it tell you that I have done a better job of predicting this than Steve Daines and the people working for Mitch McConnell?

I'm sure Montana is worlds apart from Nebraska, but I've long said that the way for Democrats to win here again at the state level is to go all-in on xenophobia towards other US states. Not other races or immigrants, but people from California or other high-cost-of-living states that ruin every single place they move to.

I agree, but you still have to be careful when walking that tightrope you don't overdue it and start losing voters in places like Missoula and Bozeman who actually are transplants. Tbf though, I think a good chunk of Dem/Dem-leaning transplant voters in Missoula and Bozeman would sort of know it's a rhetorical move and not a personal attack against them, or are never considering voting R anyways.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So, I live in Montana. Yellowstone  County, to be specific. And I've noticed a lot of Biden signs popping up lately. Keep in mind, this is a traditionally Republican county and voted for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020. It's also a huge energy county. But Biden has A LOT of support here. I even heard a neighbor of mine say, "Yeah, I voted for Trump but I think I'm going with Montana Joe this time around -- he has our backs." And yeah, they do affectionately call him "Joetana" now. It's so weird. I'm very concerned Trump is finished this November.

Do you think part of the reason could be transplants from COVID moving to smaller cities like Billings?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question for those of you from Montana/ familiar with MT politics:

How close do you think Biden has to keep MT in order for Tester to be viable, or does is Biden's performance in Montana irrelevant? Could Tester pull a Susan Collins and outrun Biden by like 20, or is the dynamics here different?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question for those of you from Montana/ familiar with MT politics:

How close do you think Biden has to keep MT in order for Tester to be viable, or does is Biden's performance in Montana irrelevant? Could Tester pull a Susan Collins and outrun Biden by like 20, or is the dynamics here different?

2012 was the last time there was extremely widespread ticket splitting in MT; in subsequent years, ticket splitting still existed, but only Democratic incumbents running for reelection to their existing posts were reelected, while Democratic candidates who were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied (including incumbents who were termed out of their existing positions) all fell short. Given that Bullock outran Clinton by 24 points in 2016 while Tester did similarly in 2018 (after outrunning Obama by 17 points in 2012), I'd say R+25 would be the presidential margin at which it would be almost impossible for Tester to win again.

In terms of 2020, it should be noted that there were some circumstances unique to that election which are likely not replicable in 2024:

-None of the Democratic candidates running for statewide office that year were running for reelection to their existing posts. Back in 2016, Bullock was running for reelection as governor but was termed out of that position in 2020, which greatly reduced his incumbency advantage in 2020; back in 2016, all Democratic statewide candidates besides Bullock fell short (including some who were running for different positions after being termed out of their existing positions), whereas in 2020, all Democratic statewide candidates were in that position, and they all fell short. Similarly, in 2018, Tester was running for reelection and won, while all other Democratic statewide candidates on the ballot that year were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied and fell short.
-Due to the pandemic, mail-in voting was made nearly universal in MT (almost 99% of all ballots cast in MT in 2020 were absentee ballots) and Democrats drastically reduced in-person campaigning (while Republicans mostly maintained their usual levels of in-person campaigning). This ended up bringing out many more R-leaning voters than expected, given that mail-in voting benefits rural, white areas much more than Native American reservations due to pre-exsting problems with mail access in the latter areas. Exit polls indicated that the partisan composition of the 2020 MT electorate was 22D-38R-41I, whereas it was 27D-33R-40I in 2012 and 25D-29R-45I in 2018. I agree that Tester would be in trouble if he faced an electorate with a partisan composition similar to 2020, but without the unique circumstances from that election, I would expect the 2024 electorate to be more similar to 2012/2018 in terms of partisan composition than 2020.

Interesting analysis, but a tad bit of pushback on the idea mail voting in MT helped Rs more in terms of turnout.

Below is a 2016-->2020 turnout change map. Generally Dem areas like Missoula and Bozeman saw turnout increases of similar magnitude to the increases statewide. You can see a few Native American areas that underperformed in turnout but those are very low population communities where you may be talking about an extra 50 or 100 votes - can matter in a very close race but not gonna make a huge difference big picture. Honestly the increased turnout 2016-->2020 in MT is remarkably consistent across communities, especially in the western half of the state.

Also those sorts of exit polls can be iffy, and 2012 was so long ago pre-Trump that changes in voter regristration could have an impact. And 2018 was a unique situation of a Dem midterm where Ds invested way more in MT than Rs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will all the expats moving into Montana help Tester?

Marginally, but probably not going to be the deciding factor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will all the expats moving into Montana help Tester?

Marginally, but probably not going to be the deciding factor.

I think migration is a bit of a wash in terms of who it favors. It seems like the people moving to Bozeman lean liberal but the people moving to Flathead County lean conservative.

Agree, but on net I'd still say it's net positive of Dems - Bozeman has more expats who are more liberal than Flathead County expats are conservative. In general, transient people tend to skew liberal, making transplant more liberal. However, this works both ways; in-migration favors Dems in most states, but out-migration hurts them in most states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm still keeping this at lean R, however, if more polls consistently show Tester at or close to 50% I may consider moving the rating down. There were a few odd polls early in 2018 that showed Tester getting smtg crazy like 55% of the vote albeit they were by low quality pollsters.

What was consistent in 2018 is most reputable pollsters consistently showed him in the 46-50% range. If we see that again, I may move this back to tossup, even tilt or lean D if there are other positive signs.

I think the thing people really underestimate is how favorable turnout was for Ds in MT in 2018; that will be hard if not impossible to replicate in a Pres cycle. Tester really needs to hope places like Missoula and Bozeman have grown enough since 2018 lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm still keeping this at lean R, however, if more polls consistently show Tester at or close to 50% I may consider moving the rating down. There were a few odd polls early in 2018 that showed Tester getting smtg crazy like 55% of the vote albeit they were by low quality pollsters.

What was consistent in 2018 is most reputable pollsters consistently showed him in the 46-50% range. If we see that again, I may move this back to tossup, even tilt or lean D if there are other positive signs.

I think the thing people really underestimate is how favorable turnout was for Ds in MT in 2018; that will be hard if not impossible to replicate in a Pres cycle. Tester really needs to hope places like Missoula and Bozeman have grown enough since 2018 lol.

The numbers on growth plus educational attainment... might not actually be so bad for Tester?

Of the six largest counties in the state, Cascade is the least college-educated at only 27%, but also had by far the slowest growth at only 0.5%. Between 2020 and 2022, Missoula (45% college-educated) grew 2.6%, Gallatin (52% college-educated) grew 5% and Lewis & Clark (42% college-educated) grew 4%.

The big Republican counties of Flathead and Yellowstone respectively grew by 7.2% and 3.1%, but those counties are both around 34-35% college educated, which is right around the national average. That tells me that growth in these counties may not be automatic bad news for Tester, and he can narrow the margins if he plays his cards right.

I'm far from an expert on the state so I could be completely wrong, but data is data and it's something to chew on.

I think generally MT having a higher college attainment than it's rural neighbors is part of the reason it's a closer state. In general, MT's college education has increased faster than the US and based on the 2020 census the college attainment % was basically in line with the nation so likely slightly higher than the nation at large now.

Gallatin is probably the most important County listed. Bozeman's 2010-->2020 growth was very impressive with quite a few communities seeing 50 or even 100% increases in population. Gallatin County is also a County that is still politically pretty close (only voted for Biden by ~8%); if Dems could turn that into a 20-30% Dem vote margin and the County continues to grow, would really eat into Rs vote margins, albiet isn't enough to flip the state on it's own.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good news for Tester.

https://twitter.com/MontanaMuckrake/status/1769856134285083120?s=20

I wonder if this, combined with the abnormally high Senate spending will cause any dent in the Presidential margin in MT. The state is obviously very likely if not safe for Trump, but could it maybe only be like Trump + 12 or something?