Predict WI Senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

Johnson due to Trends

2020 was a last hurrah for the Democrats in Wisconsin IMO

It's not like Minnesota, Illinois, or even Michigan, the geography there isn't conducive for Ds.

Just curious what has all this talk about WI having a particularly stronger rightwards trend than PA or MI been about? All 3 states have been remarkably in lockstep for about 2 decades now and even during the Trump era they all marched right pretty uniformly, WI just had the biggest polling error.

Imo Johnson wins, but the evidence really isn’t there that WI has significantly worse “trends” for Dems than a state like PA. Wisconsin would def have a worse trend if it weren’t for how powerful  and fast growing Madison is plus if Rs weren’t already at their ceiling in WOW.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Johnson due to Trends

2020 was a last hurrah for the Democrats in Wisconsin IMO

It's not like Minnesota, Illinois, or even Michigan, the geography there isn't conducive for Ds.

Just curious what has all this talk about WI having a particularly stronger rightwards trend than PA or MI been about? All 3 states have been remarkably in lockstep for about 2 decades now and even during the Trump era they all marched right pretty uniformly, WI just had the biggest polling error.

Imo Johnson wins, but the evidence really isn’t there that WI has significantly worse “trends” for Dems than a state like PA. Wisconsin would def have a worse trend if it weren’t for how powerful  and fast growing Madison is plus if Rs weren’t already at their ceiling in WOW.

The Non-Hispanic Whites in Wisconsin's Small Towns and Rural Areas are anomalously Democratic compared to the national average. In 2020, they only voted R+15 as compared to numbers such as R+30 to R+40 even in neighboring Minnesota or Michigan. This group of people makes up 49% of the population of the state.

As the nationalization of politics continues, these regional anomalies are slowly getting stamped out. We saw what happened to Missouri, then Iowa after that. It only makes sense that Wisconsin is next.

Michigan and Pennsylvania, looking at the math, have less room to fall (about half as Wisconsin does) in these areas of their state, so the most obvious concern in all these three states for the Democratic party is more intense in Wisconsin.

To top it off, Dane County is relatively small, and even though it may be proportionally growing fast, the raw numbers just don't add up for it to currently outbalance very much. Focusing on it is like focusing on the Indianapolis suburbs.


I think you may be interested in this thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=470640

Oh yeah I agree with you WI is def the most rural/small town of the big 3, but it’s also important to consider many of these rural areas have high Native populations or liberal retirement or tourism communities. If you look at “true” rural WI precincts you’ll find most outside of Driftless voted over 70% for Trump.

But what’s also worth noting is that neither MI/PA have their Dane county equivalent. Even if it’s only 1/10th of the state, it tends to have disproportionately high turnout practically and is the fastest growing of any major city between the big 3.