If the GOP doesn't flip a single "blue" senate seat or governorship, will you be surprised?

[ProgressiveModerate]

They should be able to win Kansas at the very least, possibly even Nevada or Wisconsin. Not taking anything would be very bad.

It'd also mean Dems would be in a better position on the state level than 2018 and arguably since 2010.

While Dems will prolly get the default flips of MA and MD, I rlly don't know how much that matters in reality because both their R govs were pretty moderate and the D supermajority legislatures had full control when they wanted it.

If Dems gain AZ and lose KS, I'd still say that's a slight improvement for Dems since there's no way the GOP is winning a supermajority in the AZ legislature, especially if Dems are winning statewide.

It's really funny how Dems being in such a poor position in legislatures to begin with means they aren't really defending much on that front (though neither is the GOP). Infact, I wouldn't be suprised if no chambers flip other than the AK House.

[ProgressiveModerate]

They should be able to win Kansas at the very least, possibly even Nevada or Wisconsin. Not taking anything would be very bad.

It'd also mean Dems would be in a better position on the state level than 2018 and arguably since 2010.

While Dems will prolly get the default flips of MA and MD, I rlly don't know how much that matters in reality because both their R govs were pretty moderate and the D supermajority legislatures had full control when they wanted it.

If Dems gain AZ and lose KS, I'd still say that's a slight improvement for Dems since there's no way the GOP is winning a supermajority in the AZ legislature, especially if Dems are winning statewide.

It's really funny how Dems being in such a poor position in legislatures to begin with means they aren't really defending much on that front (though neither is the GOP). Infact, I wouldn't be suprised if no chambers flip other than the AK House.

I’d be very surprised if Republicans didn’t flip the MN House given that Dems only have a 70-64 margin there and have a handful of retirements and highly vulnerable incumbents in Trump districts outstate that alone would flip the chamber.  I’m thinking Republicans probably flip the ME House as well.

There are also quite a few Biden district Rs who's seat got pulled in further to MSP. But ye the Iron Range may really cost Dems in the end. The median seat was like Biden + 3 or smtg so def not impossible Dems hold.

Given how tiny ME Lower Chamber seats are, a lot of those races may come down to some very local issues that even the best Atlas poster would have no idea about. Assuming the tossup races break about 50-50 it'll be very tight!