How the Kansas result changes the GOV landscape...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, not much. We’ve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isn’t their stances on the issues, it’s their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

I'm unsure what you're suggesting here...that the center-right Republicans who voted down the referendum in KS would actually be Democrats if the party had better optics?  Do you not think people can have non-abortion reasons for supporting the GOP? 

They definitely can, but by and large we see on many major issues people tend to agree with the Democratic position than the GOP position. The main thing working in the GOP favour is it seems voters tend to trust them more on the economy (which I imagine inflation only reinforces for many) as well as they're very successful both at painting Dems as out of touch and at letting those on the far left represent the entire Dem party

Poll just about any mainstream Dem position it'll get over 55%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It doesn't indicate any shift, truly. The two party primary vote was still 62-38 in favor of the GOP in Kansas. Just further proof that ballot measures like this and minimum wage increases can decisively pass while voters send Republicans to higher office.

That fact alone is good for the GOP but putting it in greater historically and circumstantial context it doesn't look so great.

The GOP always has a massive primary turnout edge in KS, often over 25 points in their favor. Also consider that on the Dem side there weren't any significant competitive primary elections.

Another factor too is all these Independents who overwhelmingly voted no, and showed up just to do so given they can't vote in D or R primaries. How do they lean and who will they vote for come 2022?