Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot has already been said, so here's a new one.

I've done some quick math to get a rough estimate of how Sharice Davids's new district voted.

It voted 67% No. And that's WITHOUT including the portion of Wyandotte County within the district.

Ye if Davids runs on the issues, she's got a good chance of holding on even in a bad year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It lost 19 points in a state where the last Republican overperformed the NPV by 19. In 2006, the last “similar” vote lost by 12 in a state that again overvoted Republican by 19. What’s even more interesting is that 2022 is, gun to my head, a R+3 year and 2006 was D+9. This thing should have been a barn burner but instead lost by 19.

2006 was a completely different time.

Firstly, you didn't have spontaneous media the way we do today, meaning that back then you likely had a much larger chunk of folks who didn't even know it was on the ballot. I think that really helped no in this case.

Furthermore, I tend to believe as is the case on most social issues, the country overall has slowly grown more liberal on abortion.

[ProgressiveModerate]

🤡 🤡 🤡

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1559316797572128772?s=20&t=ErE43y6F5_p...

Watch it pad "No" lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anybody know what is going on with the supreme court races? it would be a shame for this amendment to be defeated only for the supreme court to reverse it's 2019 ruling.

Supreme Court is appointed in Kansas. No elections.

The way a ruling reversal is prevented is by re-electing Kelly, who has appointed three of the seven justices currently on the court. There are also two still on the court from the governorship of Kathleen Sebelius, who was the only governor in state history to appoint a majority of the court (two of the four she appointed have since retired).

A Republican state with a 5D-2R court.

They still have to win retention elections.  Kelly's appointees are all up for retention this fall.  If they lose and she loses, Schmidt gets to appoint replacements and the court will be 5R/2D (and would almost surely reverse the 2019 abortion decision ASAP). 

Judges almost always win retention unless there's some huge scandal (this is a rule for basically every state where there are retentions).