This always interested me. In theory, the most populated states and the largest city should vote closest to the nationwide average. NYC is easier to explain because the lifestyle is very different from average, but note the 2nd-5th largest cities all have pretty average American car-based lifestyles and cover a mix of blue, red, and purple states. Yet none of them show much regression toward the mean either.
This is an interesting point.
I’d make the case though that larger states tend to be large in population because they have large cities; disproportionate to most states. Cali votes so blue not because the cities are that uniquely blue (though tbf the Bay Area kinda is) but because there aren’t the rurals to outvote the coast. Considering most the entire country outside nyc is car dependent, I don’t know how strong of a correlation one can say there is; especially when South Brooklyn which has many subway lines votes so heavily R
Same thing goes in NY; NY without NYC would be a swing state but NYC itself skews the state to be more urban and diverse than average.
