Why are GOP swings more intense than Dem swings (user search)
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  Why are GOP swings more intense than Dem swings (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why are GOP swings more intense than Dem swings  (Read 1290 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: May 21, 2022, 11:34:16 PM »

Oftentimes when the GOP has a favorable shift in their favor, it is very sudden and quite extreme. In 2016 for example the entirety of the rural midwest had 30+ point swings towards Trump and in 2020, RGV and Miami Swings were very insane.

Even in the Obama years this same Phenomenon was true. Look at rural Arkansas in 2008 or WV/KY in 2012.

On the Dem side, we haven't seen many swings over about 15 points the past few cycles, but it seems like their gains have been more consistent than the GOP's with them often improving in the same community for several cycles in a row.

Why is this the case?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2022, 01:41:15 PM »

The swings even out a little bit more if you look at them on longer scale terms than just 2016-2020, such as 2012-2020, since Trump's massive rural gains were largely consolidated in just one election cycle, but Democratic gains in the educated suburbs were more spread out between the two cycles.

My personal favorite swing map for tracking the longform shifts between college educated whites leftward and working class-whites rightward is 2004-2020, which really highlights the collapse of metropolitan Republicanism and heartland Demosaurs on a wider timeframe. This also has the added benefit of washing out noisier data, like Obama's freakishly strong performance with working class whites in the Midwest for a Democrat or Trump's big in-roads with Hispanics since Bush performed even better nationally with the Latino vote.



Hidalgo, Webb and Cameron are interesting
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