Kind of hard to tell with how much has been going on, there seems to be a rural resurgence lately and people are leaving big metros, but this could possibly be to the benefit of Democrats if it means their voters spread out more. If it means Democratic voters are moving to ruby red rural areas it's probably a waste though.
I always thought Democratic voters are more mobile for the most part, when you see fast growth areas it's usually areas that are trending D in the next election. This is probably the Millennial generation (to a lesser extent GenZ) moving out and getting homes of their own.
The overall suburb gains seen in the last couple cycles is probably permanent more or less, it's just the national environment can go up and down for Democrats but the trends will persist. The growth in those suburbs is mostly younger people moving to those areas and voting more leftwing.
The biggest overall problem for Republicans is probably that they don't really have anyway to replenish the voters they're gradually losing from the Baby Boomer generation. I think this will eventually force them to concede on some issues that aren't tenable with younger generations like Marijuana, Climate Change, and LGBT issues. Kinda like how gay marriage gradually became untenable.
I might be bias I guess but I don't really see a similar situation for Democrats on much, their positions are almost "over" focused on the younger generations to a fault.
I agree with this analysis in large part. Every fast growing region has had Dems gaining ground with the exception of retirement communities and specific religious enclaves (think Lakewood NJ).
By this definition, it’s not only unlikely, but more or less impossible for some suburbs to go back to how they were voting pre-2012 solely because of demographic changes of the suburbs. A good example is today it’s pretty much impossible for an R to win Travis county TX no matter how moderate or appealing they may seem even if Bush won it in 2000. Even if Rs won every Bush voter and then some it wouldn’t be close to enough.
Every generation is def more liberal than the last socially and once someone has a certain social value in the progressive direction that’s hard to reverse (I.e. it’s much easier to Convince someone who opposes gay marriage to support it than the other way around). I suspect the gop will move left on social issues and basically be a decade or two behind Dems on a lot of matters.
Another factor to consider too is conservatives may not start voting until they are older, especially if liberals tend to be more focused on taking a path of education and involvement early in life. There’s already evidence to support this is the case.
My guess as to what will happen is the gop will get some big wake up call that actually makes them electorally inviable and it’ll be interesting to see what they do. It’ll probably come in the form of TX going for Georgia or this house lockout situation. I don’t think we’ll have an extended period of time where they’re just locked out though unless they actually do go full MTG.
I do wonder how much of the “rural resurgence” is a fact of COVID and also flawed estimates of the census which largely overestimated rural areas this past census. If young people are moving to rural Missouri then we screwed.