how do you rank geographic advantage?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Calculated this a while back for some states:



Obv the specific number of districts will have an impact (I.e Wisconsin 8 or 9 districts is kind of the worst possible number for Dems), and this has not been updated for the official 2020 census results. I hope to finish this project soon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated scores with more states

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated scores with more states

Maryland has the worst geography for Democrats? That's absolutely mind-blowing.

I think it’s because Dems are very packed into immediate DC burbs and Baltimore, and happen to be higher turnout. There’s quite a lot of red territory in Maryland despite the state overall being so blue. Also these calculations are imperfect so take it all with a grain of salt

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated scores with more states

Maryland has the worst geography for Democrats? That's absolutely mind-blowing.

I think it’s because Dems are very packed into immediate DC burbs and Baltimore, and happen to be higher turnout. There’s quite a lot of red territory in Maryland despite the state overall being so blue. Also these calculations are imperfect so take it all with a grain of salt

A commission-style, minimal county/city split congressional map in the 2011 cycle would have been tied 4D/4R in 2012.  I think a 5th district would have given out by the end of the decade (either a western seat that has some of Montgomery or an Anne Arundel-based seat further east), but it would have 2-3 R seats today and might have stayed 4/4 until 2018.  That's pretty wild in a 4X 60%+ Dem state presidentially.   

Also, VA was just as bad as MD pre-Biden.  Dems won the statewide vote for House of Delegates by more than 9% in 2017 but still lost the chamber by 1 seat.

3 Trump seats on 2020 numbers is pretty easy and one could even argue "natural". It's also not that hard to draw a state leg map that denies Dems a supermajority which is pretty hard usually in a +30% state.