I’ll be voting third party or writing in.
He seems set on running for governor, which I think he’ll lose by a slightly smaller margin than normal, though if HR1 passes and causes SC-1 to be redrawn he may run there. I think the reason he’s not doing it this time for sure is that he doesn’t think he could flip it back in it’s current form.
Looks like I might be right on this.
Do you think it is plausible that Scott gets over 60% again? Given his general popularity and the extreme weakness of his Democratic opponent, I believe that it could happen. Matthews could sink almost to the levels that Alvin Greene reached in 2010.
I could see him getting close but America has just become far more polarized since then. Contrary to popular belief, Scott really didn't do particularly amazing with the African American vote and his heavy overperformances of Trump were in the metro areas of the state. A lot of these overperformances were like 30% + relative to Trump 2020 so those will be very difficult if not impossible for him to replicate, and it'll be hard to make up for those losses with significant rural gains over Trump where he basically ran even.