PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[ProgressiveModerate]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.

I can see that being the worst-case scenario for him. I don't believe the 13-14 point polls.

Something doesn't smell right about PA polling right now as I've said in another thread for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, the divide between Senate and Gov seems way too large. An 11% difference in margin seems  way too large, even if Mastriano is terrible, just given Pennsylvania's relative polarization and nationalization in the media.

Secondly, Fetterman outright falling from 51.2% to 46.6% doesn't seem right. Yes, i would expect Oz to consolidate the R base and hence increse his own %, but that sort of drop on Fetterman's part takes some HUGE scandal which there has not been. The stroke def had an impact but would not justify that large of a change.

Also, can we just consider 11% is about what Casey won by in a super D leaning year against a nobody? 2022 is just likely to be less favorable overall so idk if an 11% win would be possible for Shapiro with the electorate that shows up.

Consider that Tom Wolf sent Tom Corbett to the shadow realm by just shy of double digits in a horribly unfriendly year. Yeah, Corbett was unpopular, but he was an incumbent running in what should have been a good year for him. 2022 is almost surely not going to be as Republican as 2014 and Mastriano is way worse than Corbett, so I personally think a low to mid double digit Shapiro victory isn't at all out of the question.

I hope you're right because it'd be a sign that truly awful politicians can still be held accountable by voters. I think I've just lost faith due to polarization giving a lot of these terrible candidates more footing than they otherwise would have, and in some cases outright victories.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Voting for my libertarian candidate, Matt Hackenberg, but I'll take Shapiro over Mastriano. That guy kinda scares me

If he scares you - don’t waste your vote

I wasted my vote exactly once; I voted for Donald Trump in 2020 out of fear of Joe Biden's policies, and I have regretted that vote ever since. I now vote for the candidate I agree with, and never out of fear.

I think when you don't like either candidate can be a very hard decision. You obviously don't align with either Oz or Fetterman, so giving your vote to either feels like going against your own values. But at the same time, you know a 3rd party candidate has no shot in the race, but if they get a large enough vote share ig it could make a point. It's just that you're giving away your power to determine the final result in the Senate race.

I'm not saying how you're voting is necessarily right or wrong, just that I can understand why that'd be a weird pickle to be in and I'd be curious how you view it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Winning by 15 points under FPP should translate into a lot more than 61% of the seats. But given PA Dems' vote concentration, that's a pretty decent result.

I think a large part of it is that the "liberal" Philly suburbs come to a pretty abrupt stop as soon as you enter Lancaster and Berks counties, whereas in most other states with large urban cores, a larger D win directly correlates with winning seats further and further out into the suburbs.

Under the Cerva's state House map, Biden 1 point win statewide resulted in him wininning all but 2 seats between Chester and Montgomery Counties so there wasn't much more for Shapiro to peel off there. Meanwhile, Shapiro only flipped 1 seat from Biden between Lancaster and Berks, not even coming that close in HD-100 or HD-99 which directly border Chester County

[ProgressiveModerate]

Winning by 15 points under FPP should translate into a lot more than 61% of the seats. But given PA Dems' vote concentration, that's a pretty decent result.

I think a large part of it is that the "liberal" Philly suburbs come to a pretty abrupt stop as soon as you enter Lancaster and Berks counties, whereas in most other states with large urban cores, a larger D win directly correlates with winning seats further and further out into the suburbs.


Under the Cerva's state House map, Biden 1 point win statewide resulted in him wininning all but 2 seats between Chester and Montgomery Counties so there wasn't much more for Shapiro to peel off there. Meanwhile, Shapiro only flipped 1 seat from Biden between Lancaster and Berks, not even coming that close in HD-100 or HD-99 which directly border Chester County

Also, Dem's didn't lead the GOP by 10+ points in the state leg races. They technically lost the overall popular vote by under 8%, but there were 20 more (~10% of the chamber) uncontested GOP races when compared to uncontested Dem ones. Shapiro certainly carried the ticket, but Fetterman's margins seem to be a better comparison for everyone else.


Fetterman won 107 seats, Whereas Shapiro won 124 seats BTW.

Were there any Biden-Oz seats? Looking on DRA, the only one I could see as maybe a possibility is HD-160 (wealthy Chester County suburbs). Still nearly Biden + 8 so seems very unlikely. Ig 142 and 144 which were narrow Biden seats in Bucks County are also possibilities, but if I had to guess Fetterman would've run ahead of Biden narrowly in these seats.