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« on: December 14, 2020, 09:51:30 PM » |
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Well, first off, there was a lack of Senate polls in Maine in the days leading up to the election, and the polls we got generally had high undecides leading to extra ambiguity. Maybe if the election had been held in September or October when Gideon was doing well in many polls, she might've won; it's really hard to tell. It's also important to note that while Collins won by a large margin, she only won 51% of the vote, and while we'll never truly know, it seems like RCV probably would've broken heavily for Gideon and it might've narrowed to only a 3 or 4% margin. If that were the case, those Gideon + 2 polls wouldn't have been any more off than the Kelly + 8 polls or the Cunningham + 5 polls.
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