Is this the absolute floor for both parties

[ProgressiveModerate]

We're so far out, that while NM could end up being safe D, I think the GOP could flip it in a perfect storm. I also think the inverse is true of AK. With these sort of maps this far out we have to be quite generous since so much can change.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nevada, New Mexico, and Minnesota are realistically in the dem floor column.

I think they're probably favorites in all for now, but NV literally just voted 2% to the right of the nation; it's very easy to imagine Democrtas losing it. MN and NM seem like uphill climbs for Republicans and I would personally rate them at lean and likely D respectively for now, but it's definately possible they flip. I would say any state within 10% this cycle can't be completely written off in 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nevada, New Mexico, and Minnesota are realistically in the dem floor column.

I think they're probably favorites in all for now, but NV literally just voted 2% to the right of the nation; it's very easy to imagine Democrtas losing it. MN and NM seem like uphill climbs for Republicans and I would personally rate them at lean and likely D respectively for now, but it's definately possible they flip. I would say any state within 10% this cycle can't be completely written off in 2024.

I agree, but NM was outside of 10%

I tend to be a bit more generous with the potential range of outcomes in smaller states, specifically those that are quite narrow Demographically, since they tend to be a bit more volatile (Iowa in 2016 is a great example).