ProgressiveModerate
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« on: October 24, 2020, 03:13:04 PM » |
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This is really tough. There are many contradictory things going on that makes this really difficult to analyze.
1. Greenfield generally leads in polls, but IA polling is simillar to NV, most of the time "undecides" break heavily D.
2. We don't really know the electorate we're working with in IA considering turnout looks to be dramatically different than in 2016. Generally, common logic says turnout helps Ds, but in a state like IA here the less reliable voters are uneducated whites, will it really help them?
3. Even though Ernst is the incumbent, there's a strong case for a negative incumbency advantage, especially in the case of this race. With that being said, Ernst is good at retail politics, though it looks like that isn't going as well for her this cycle
4. IA is trending R, but generally down ballot trends lag a bit behind top of the ticket trends (AR, WV). We also might see some mean reversion this cycle
5. IA bounced back a little in 2018, but Ds were still overestimated a bit
6. This state is probably a tossup on the Presidential level, maybe with a slight tilt towards Trump
Overall a very true tossup race, though we'll see if either canidate pulls away in the coming weeks. For now, I'll have Ernst as the slight favorite, though my model says Greenfield, so I'm really not sure.
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